Bowl Pool Expected Values
Back to Pool PageExpected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. I did produce the first Expected Values listings showing chances for BYU and Hawaii winning after Monday's game. They took over 6 hours to run and we have over 500M different possible outcomes left.
Future Possibilities:
Congrats to Mark Hoxmeier winner of the 40th Annual Bowl Pool.
Miami(Ohio) beats the spread in the Lendingtree Bowl January 4th:
Final Standings 1-Mark Hoxmeier 2-Pat Feldner 3-Brian Arthur 4T-Matt Gateris 4T-Jason Herrig 6-Garan Drozd 7-Justin Zortman 8-Ed Holland.
If Louisiana-Lafayette had covered the spread in the Lendingtree Bowl January 4th:
Final Standings 1-Mark Hoxmeier 2-Matt Gateris 3-Brian Arthur 4-Jason Herrig 5-Garan Drozd 6-Pat Feldner 7-Adam Kroll 8-Ed Holland.
Current Status:
Tulane wins the Armed Forces Bowl January 4th:
1 game to go Mark Hoxmeier has won. Brian Arthur 2nd best with Matt Gateris right behind. Then Pat Feldner, Jason Herrig, and Garan Drozd.
Past Expected Values:
Ohio wins the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl January 3rd:
2 games to go Mark Hoxmeier clinhes it! Brian Arthur next best, then Matt Gateris, Garan Drozd, Jason Herrig and Pat Feldner.
Indiana loses by 1 point to cover spread by 1/2 point in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl January 2nd:
3 games to go Mark Hoxmeier holds his lead with Matt Gateris wheeling himself up ahead of Garan Drozd and Brian Arthur.
Cincinnati wins the Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl January 2nd:
4 games to go Mark Hoxmeier still leads with Adam Kroll 2nd. Mike Carnes moves ahead of Brian Arthur with Matt Gateris and Garan Drozd right behind.
Georgia despite missing 17 players wins the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
5 games to go Mark Hoxmeier holds his lead with Adam Kroll and Brian Arthur tied for 2nd. Mike Carnes, Matt Gateris next with Deb Lesley falling back.
Oregon wins the Rose Bowl January 1st:
6 games to go Mark Hoxmeier has slim lead with Adam Kroll now on his heels. Deb Lesley slips a bit. Brian Arthur, Garan Drozd, Mike Carnes, and Matt Gateris follow.
Alabama and Minnesota win their Bowl games January 1st:
7 games to go Mark Hoxmeier regains the lead. Deb Lesley solid 2nd. Brian Arthur, Mike Carnes, Adam Kroll, and now Matt Gateris and Larry Lesley next.
Texas wins the Valero Alamo Bowl December 31st:
9 games to go Deb Lesley finally regains her lead. Mark Hoxmeier is a strong 2nd. Brian Arthur and Adam Kroll have good chances with Mark Behrman coming on.
Wyoming wins the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl December 31st:
10 games to go Mark Hoxmeier stays ahead of Deb Lesley. Brian Arthur moves into 3rd place. Adam Kroll and Mike Carnes are next.
Navy wins the Autozone Liberty Bowl December 31st:
11 games to go Mark Hoxmeier now just barely ahead of Deb Lesley. Mike Carnes is 3rd and then Brian Arthur. Adam Kroll leads the pack.
Arizona State wins the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl December 31st:
12 games to go Mark Hoxmeier in first. Deb Lesley improves a bit. Mike Carnes also improving. Terry Cotton and Brian Arthur lead the rest.
Kentucky scores with 15 seconds left to win the Belk Bowl December 31st:
13 games to go Mark Hoxmeier builds his lead over Deb Lesley with Mike Carnes in 3rd. Wade Lawrence and Curry's Clan lead the rest.
Virginia covers the spread in the Capital One Orange Bowl December 30th:
14 games to go Mark Hoxmeier is still leading with Deb Lesley close. Mike Carnes stays solid 3rd - others are back a bit.
California and Louisville win their Bowl games December 30th:
15 games to go Mark Hoxmeier leads but Deb Lesley is very close. Mike Carnes is a solid 3rd - others are back a bit.
Western Michigan just barely beats the spread in the First Responder Bowl December 30th:
17 games to go Mark Hoxmeier wins another. David Anderson moves ahead of Deb Lesley with Curry's Clan a ways back.
Clemson wins the Playstation Fiesta Bowl December 28th:
18 games to go Mark Hoxmeier increase his lead over Deb Lesley. David Anderson improves but still 3rd with Curry' Clan making an appearance.
L.S.U. wins the Chick=Fil-A Peach Bowl December 28th:
19 games to go Mark Hoxmeier overtakes Deb Lesley - but it's close. David Anderson is a distant 3rd with Tom Esber moving into the picture.
Notre Dame and Penn State win December 28th:
20 games to go Deb Lesley storms to big lead. Mark Hoxmeier improves but is 2nd. David Anderson improves too. Wade Lawrence is next best.
Air Force wins the Cheez-It Bowl:
22 games to go Mark Hoxmeier is new leader closely followed by Deb Lesley. Tammy Rasmussen, David Anderson next with Madison Weiler falling to 5th.
Iowa wins the Holiday Bowl:
23 games to go Madison Weiler still holds good lead. Mark Hoxmeier, Deb Lesley, and Wade Lawrence are next best.
Oklahoma State scores in last minute to cover the spread in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl:
24 games to go Madison Weiler keeps improving. Mark Hoxmeier still 2nd, but falling. Then Deb Lesley and Wade Lawrence.
Michigan State wins the New Era Pinstripe Bowl:
25 games to go Madison Weiler improves. Mark Hoxmeier is solid with Deb Lesley next followed by Tammy Rasmussen.
North Carolina demolished Temple in the Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Gruman:
26 games to go Madison Weiler restrengthens her lead. Deb Lesley and Mark Hoxmeier are next.
Eastern Michigan loses but beats the spread in the Quick Lane Bowl:
27 games to go Madison Weiler getting caught by the pack. David Anderson is next best.
Louisiana Tech wins the Walk-on's Independecne Bowl:
28 games to go Madison Weiler builds a big lead. Kathy & Chris and Deb Lesley lead the rest of the pack.
Hawaii wins the Sofi Hawai'i Bowl:
29 games to go Madison Weiler is ahead of David Anderson with Kathy & Chris next. And things have tightened up considerably.
After Next 6 Games of December 21st:
8 games have been played and David Anderson is the only one to get all 8 games correct!
Madison Weiler has actually amassed more points than David with her top heavy entry, but has missed her 38 weight.
Tom Hughes still has a strong looking entry missing only his 11 weight.
No one has missed all games.
After First 2 Games of December 20th:
Tom Hughes stacked his 39 and 38 weights to early wins.
David Anderson was almost as good with 38 and 37 in the bag.
Ben Weiler and Beau James picked the first two correct with good scores too.
Ed Holland, Denny Mitchell, Michael Greenblat, Brian Arthur, Larry Lesley,
Jake Weiler, Dave Desing, Dave Neuleib, Tim Dolan, Mike Andre, Dave Drozd also picked first two.
Several missed both games too, of course.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games - after games of January 2nd.
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games - after games of January 1st.
All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games - after 2 early games January 1st.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games - after games of December 31st.
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games - after the Liberty Bowl December 31st.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games - after games of December 30th.