Bowl Pool Expected Values
Back to Pool PageExpected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. Although last year they did okay. The first expected values will probably be produced on or around the games of December 23rd.
Future Possibilities:
Congrats to Wade Lawrence and Trent Luther co-winners of the 38th Annual Bowl Pool.
Alabama wins the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
Final Standings 1T-Wade Lawrence 1T-Trent Luther 3-Chip Cotton 4-Toby White 5-Obi Aniakduo 6-Tom Bockhaus 7-Tom Hughes 8-Denny Mitchell
If Clemson had win the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
Final Standings 1-Chip Cotton 2-Trent Luther 3-Denny Mitchell 4-Tim Curry 5T-Wade Lawrence 5T-Ken Johnson 7-Tom Bockhaus 8-Dave Neuleib
Current Status:
Georgia wins in OT in exciting Rose Bowl January 1st:
1 game to go Trent Luther gets tie or 2nd. Chip Cotton wins or 3rd. Wade Lawrence can still share lead. Denny Mitchell places well.
Past Expected Values:
The 3 early games go South Carolina, Central Florida, Notre Dame January 1st:
2 games to go Great afternoon for Trent Luther! Then we have Chip Cotton who can still win, Denny Mitchell guaranteed placing, Wade Lawrence who could get tie for win, and Toby White hanging around.
Wisconsin wins the Orange Bowl December 30th:
5 games to go Chip Cotton becomes new pool leader. Wade Lawrence is close behind. Mark Hoxmeier and Trent Luther are next with Denny Mitchell 5th.
Penn State wins the Fiesta Bowl December 30th:
6 games to go Troy Ginther improves his lead. Chip Cotton is now 2nd. Wade Lawrence moves up to 3rd followed by Tim Curry, Mark Hoxmeier, Trent Luther, and Denny Mitchell.
Mississippi State and Iowa State win games December 30th:
7 games to go Troy Ginther remains in front. Denny Mitchell recovers and moves up to 2nd just ahead of Chip Cotton. Next is Tim Curry, then Toby White and Wade Lawrence.
Ohio State wins the Cotton Bowl December 29th:
9 games to go Troy Ginther regains the lead. Toby White slips to 2nd with Tim Curry gaining ground. Tom Hughes and Obi Aniakudo are next best.
New Mexico State wins (in ovetime) the Arizona Bowl December 29th:
10 games to go Toby White remains in first. Obi Aniakudo still there in 2nd. Troy Ginter and Chip Cotton hold their positions. Tim Curry and Denny Mitchell trail.
Kentucky fails 2-pt conversion but covers in the Music City Bowl December 29th:
11 games to go Toby White takes over the lead. Obi Aniakudo holds at 2nd, Troy Ginther is close at 3rd with Chip Cotton a close 4th.
North Carolina State wins the Sun Bowl December 29th:
12 games to go Troy Ginther and Obi Aniakudo both slip but stay in lead. Chip Cotton improves even more. Toby White improves and goes ahead of Denny Mitchell.
In a 107 point slugfest, Wake Forest wins (55-52) the Belk Bowl December 29th:
13 games to go Troy Ginther stays ahead of Obi Aniakudo as both improve. Chip Cotton improves to 3rd. Denny Mitchell and Toby White are next.
Stanford loses but covers and Michigan State win Bowl games December 28th:
14 games to go Troy Ginther overtakes Obi Aniakudo with Toby White moving up. Chip Cotton and Denny Mitchell are next best.
Oklahoma State wins the Camping World Bowl December 28th:
16 games to go Obi Aniakudo improves even more. Tom Bockhaus is closely followed by Chip Cotton and then Troy Ginther.
Navy wins the Military Bowl December 28th:
17 games to go Obi Aniakudo improves his leadd. Tom Bockhaus also improves. Then we have Chip Cotton and Troy Ginther.
Purdue and Texas win December 27th:
18 games to go Obi Aniakudo storms into the lead. Next is Tom Bockhaus then Wade Lawrence and Chip Cotton even move ahead of Doug Kroll.
Iowa wins the New Era Pinstripe Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go Doug Kroll still leads, but Obi Aniakudo and Tom Hughes are somewhat close with Tom Bockhaus best of the rest.
Florida State wins the Walk-off Independence Bowl December 27th:
21 games to go Doug Kroll builds a huge lead. Obi Aniakudo and Tom Hughes trail with the identical Nate Smith and Eugene Loziner entries next.
Kansas State wins the Cactus Bowl December 26th:
22 games to go Doug Kroll still leads with Tom Hughes 2nd and Obi Aniakudo a solid third place.
Duke wins the Quick Lane Bowl December 26th:
23 games to go Doug Kroll takes over the lead. Tom Hughes remains close but 2nd. Obi Aniakudo heads many far behind.
Utah wins the Heart of Dallas Bowl December 26th:
24 games to go Tom Hughes still leads. Doug Kroll is 2nd, then Ken Auerbach, and Denny Mitchell keeps sliding back.
Fresno State wins the Hawai'i Bowl December 24th:
25 games to go Tom Hughes takes over the lead from Denny Mitchell. Doug Kroll is next best.
After 3 games played December 23rd:
26 games to go finds Denny Mitchell leading this year's first expected values same as last year!
After Games of December 22nd:
It's difficult to tell who would be leading at this point. Certainly not me.
The entry of Euguene Loziner is exactly identical to Nate Smith's. (Turns out they used the same tip sheet!)
After First 5 Games of December 15th:
Tim Dolan has amassed most points. But Shelly Drozd has only lost her 1 pick (63-1).
Denny Mitchell, Ken Auerbach and several others won 4 of first 5 but nobody got all 5 correct.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games - after 3 New Year's Day afternoon games.
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games - after December 30th Games.
All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games - after First 2 games December 30th.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games - after December 29th Games.
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games - after Music City Bowl December 29th.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games - after December 28th Games.
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games - after December 28th Afternoon Games.