Bowl Pool Expected Values
Back to Pool PageExpected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will not come out until there are no more than 29 games left which takes about 12 hours to run.
Future Possibilities:
If Auburn beats the spread in the National Championship game:
final results Chip Cotton wins. Then Shelly Drozd, Collin Becker, Layne Wardenburg, The Hamms Bear.
If Florida State beats the spread in the National Championship game:
final results Chip Cotton wins. Then Shelly Drozd , Scott Holland, Layne Wardenburg, Jon Bockhaus.
Current Status:
Arkansas State (a real state) wins Sunday's bowl game:
2 games to go Chip Cotton has won. Shelly Drozd clinches 2nd, then Layne Wardenburg, Collin Becker and (better late than never) Scott Holland.
Past Expected Values:
Vanderbilt wins Saturday's bowl game:
3 games to go Chip Cotton clinches first place!. Shelly Drozd, Layne Wardenburg, and Collin Becker follow.
Missouri wins Cotton Bowl and Clemson wins the Orange Bowl:
3 games to go Chip Cotton takes over lead from Shelly Drozd. Collin Becker and Layne Wardenburg are next.
Oklahoma Wins the Sugar Bowl:
5 games to go Shelly Drozd and Chip Cotton are virtually deadlocked. Ken Johnson and Chris Wagner lead the rest.
Central Florida Wins the Fiesta Bowl:
6 games to go Shelly Drozd still leads with only Chip Cotton who can catch her, then Ken Johnson and Jon Bockhaus gets to 4th.
Michigan State Wins the Rose Bowl:
7 games to go Shelly Drozd still leads but Chip Cotton gets closer, then The Hamms Bear. Ken Johnson, Tom Bockhaus, and Layne Wardenburg follow.
South Carolina Wins, and Iowa Loses But Beats The Spread:
8 games to go Shelly Drozd leads but Chip Cotton comes out of nowhere, then The Hamms Bear, and Tom Bockhaus.
Nebraska and North Texas Win First 2 Games New Year's Day:
10 games to go Shelly Drozd followed by Dave Drozd, then a rising Tom Bockhaus, The Hamms Bear, and Justin Zortman.
Duke Loses But Covers in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl:
12 games to go Shelly Drozd followed by, who else? Dave Drozd, then The Hamms Bear, Justin Zortman, and creeping up Tom Bockhaus.
If Mississippi State Wins the Liberty Bowl:
13 games to go Shelly Drozd leads of course, then The Hamms Bear, Justin Zortman, and Dave Drozd.
U.C.L.A. wins the Sun Bowl:
14 games to go Shelly Drozd leads, then The Hamms Bear, Dave Drozd, Justin Zortman, and Ken Johnson.
Arizona Wins in Shreveport:
15 games to go Shelly Drozd back in form, then The Hamms Bear followed by Ken Johnson, Dave Drozd, and Justin Zortman.
Texas Tech Wins Holiday Bowl:
16 games to go Shelly Drozd still leads, then The Hamms Bear, Dave Drozd, and Ken Johnson.
Oregon Wins Valero Alamo Bowl 12/30:
17 games to go Shelly Drozd has even bigger lead, then The Hamms Bear and Dave Drozd, followed by Ken Johnson.
Navy and Mississippi Win 12/30:
18 games to go Shelly Drozd running away with it. The Hamms Bear is chasing. Ken Johnson, Dave Drozd and Jake Eggers trail.
Kansas State Wins Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl:
20 games to go Shelly Drozd has huge lead now. The Hamms Bear and Dave Drozd are followed by Jake Eggers and Ken Johnson.
Louisville Wins Russel Athletic Bowl:
21 games to go Shelly Drozd has big lead over Jake Eggers. Dave Drozd, and The Hamms Bear are next.
Rutgers and North Carolina Win 12/28:
22 games to go Shelly Drozd leads then Jake Eggers, Sean Stowe, Dave Drozd, and Tim Holland.
Washington Beats B.Y.U. in the Fight Hunger Bowl:
24 games to go And Now Shelly Drozd goes back ahead of Sean Stowe. Jack Eggers is next followed by Tim Holland, Steve Harrington, and Dave Drozd.
Syracuse beats Minnesota in the Texas Bowl:
25 games to go Sean Stowe edges ahead of Shelly Drozd. Tim Holland leads the rest of the pack.
Hate to bring this up, but 2 players still have yet to win a game. (And either could still win the pool!)
Marshall beats Maryland at the Military Bowl:
26 games to go Shelly Drozd and Sean Stowe pull away from the pack.
Pitt beats Bowling Green, then Utah State beats Northern Illinois:
27 games to go Shelly Drozd takes slim lead over Sean Stowe and John Henson, then Dave Drozd.
Nobody has won all their picks now.
Still have two players yet to win a pick.
Oregon State wins the Hawaii Bowl:
29 games to go John Henson leads as expected! Then Sean Stowe, Shelly Drozd, and Dave Drozd.
Jake Eggers and Dave Drozd have still won all their picks, and two players have yet to win.
Nobody is eliminated yet. Anyone can win.
East Carolina covers the spread with late score:
Jake Eggers and Dave Drozd remain untarnished.
John Henson adds another (31) big win.
4 players missed all of the first 5 games.
First 4 Games:
Jake Eggers, Dave Drozd, and Dave Desing only ones to get first 4 games all right.
However, John Henson's 101-2 start would seem to make him the early leader.
7 players missed all 4 of the first games.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities All 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games - after Friday's Cotton & Orange Bowl games.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games - after New Year's Day games complete.
All Possibilities 256 possible outcomes of last 8 games - after first 4 New Year's Day games complete.
All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games - after Tuesdays games complete.
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games - after Holiday Bowl.