Bowl Pool Expected Values
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Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I like to point out a key fact: In most years, the leaders on these early expected value reports have not necessarily ended up doing that well.
Future Possibilities:
If Oklahoham wins the Armed Forces Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go
Rosenthal moves further ahead. Ken Krofta and Mark Behrman are next.
Off the top we next find Michael Popp, Slade Sloan, Scott Brummel and Chris Kramer.
If Navy wins the Armed Forces Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go
Slade Sloan is our new leader. Adam Kroll and Ken Krofta are next best.
Trailing the top 3 are Rosenthal and Chris Kramer.
Current Status:
Arkansas State wins the Ventures (Telstar?) Bowl December 26th:
21 games to go
Rosenthal slips ahead of Ken Krofta with Slade Sloan close behind.
Mark Behrman then Adam Kroll and Chris Kramer are next.
Past Expected Values:
Rutgers only loses by 3 in the Rate Bowl December 26th:
22 games to go
We now have a big logjam - Rosenthal has slim lead over Slade Sloan and Ken Krofta.
Adam Kroll, Mark Behrman, Chris Kramer, Scott Brummel and Michael Popp and others close in.
Toledo wins the GameAbove Sports Bowl in 6OTs December 26th:
23 games to go
Scott Brummel still leads and Ken Krofta holds 2nd place.
Jason Stowe and Rosenthal are next best.
South Florida wins the Hawaii Bowl Christmas Eve:
24 games to go
Scott Brummel keeps going strong with Ken Krofta now 2nd best.
Rosenthal and Chris Kramer are next best.
Northern Illinois wins the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (in OT) December 23rd:
25 games to go
Scott Brummel has a good lead. Chris Kramer is 2nd best.
Ken Krofta and Adam Kroll are next best.
Texas-San Antonio wins the Myrtle Beach Bowl December 23rd:
26 games to go
Scott Brummel has built a solid lead.
Adam Kroll and Jason Stowe are next best followed by Chris Kramer and Zak White.
Through the pool's first 10 games,
the favorites in CFP games all cover December 21st:
27 games to go
Scott Brummel is our first EV leader!
Ken Krofta and Beau Hultquist are next best.
The last to finally lose a game, Zak White, is in 4th place.
Congrats to Whitey Stange winner of last year's Bowl Pool.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)