Bowl Pool Expected Values
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Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I like to point out a key fact: In most years, the leaders on these early expected value reports have not necessarily ended up doing that well.
Future Possibilities: Congrats to Brian Arthur #2 winner of this year's Bowl Pool.
Current Status:
Final Standings Buffalo wins the Bahamas Bowl January 4th.
Past Expected Values:
Minnesota wins the Duke's Mayo Bowl January 3rd:
1 game to go
Brian Arthur #2 wins.
Jason Stowe and Adam Kroll vie for 2nd. Chris Kramer locks in 3rd place.
North Texas loses by only 2 in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl January 3rd:
2 games to go
Brian Arthur #2 has clinched the 2025 championship.
Jason Stowe and Adam Kroll vie for next best.
Chris Kramer has also clinched cashing.
Mississippi wins the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl January 2nd:
3 games to go
Brian Arthur #2 can only be outright beat by Adam Kroll.
He could be tied by Jason Stowe who almost has runner-up sewed up.
David Anderson, Chris Kramer and Carrigan Rasmussen will all probably cash.
L.S.U. wins the Kinder's Texas Bowl December 31st:
4 games to go
Brian Arthur #2 has almost locked this up.
Jason Stowe has 2nd best value with Adam Kroll now 3rd.
Chris Kramer and David Anderson are next and Curry's Clan still has a winning chance.
Illinois wins the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl December 31st:
5 games to go
Brian Arthur #2 improves with David Anderson still 2nd.
Jason Stowe and Chris Kramer stay 3rd/4th but now Adam Kroll leads the rest.
Washington loses by 1 point in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl December 31st:
6 games to go
This allosw Brian Arthur #2 to edge ahead of David Anderson.
Jason Stowe and Chris Kramer are close with Rosenthal next best.
Michigan wins the ReliaQuest Bowl December 31st:
7 games to go
Jason Stowe becomes the new leader followed by Brian Arthur #2
Then it's Chris Kramer and David Anderson.
Rosenthal still licking his wounds over his 1/2 point loss.
The Iowa Hawkeyes lose but cover by 1/2 point in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl December 30th:
8 games to go
This propels David Anderson to the top with Jason Stowe 2nd.
Brian Arthur #2 is next followed by Chris Kramer and Adam Kroll.
Evidently no Hawkeye fan, Rosenthal falls all the way to 6th place.
Brigham Young wins the Valero Alamo Bowl December 28th:
9 games to go
Rosenthal has a sizeable lead. Chris Kramer climbs back up to 2nd.
Next we find David Anderson then Jason Stowe and Brian Arthur #2.
East Carolina wins the Go Bowling Military Bowl December 28th:
10 games to go
Rosenthalis taking command. Jason Stowe somehow moves up to 2nd.
They're followed by Adam Kroll and Scott Brummel.
The Other Miami wins the Snoop Dog Arizona Bowl December 28th:
11 games to go
Now that Rosenthal(Dave Neuleib) takes a slim lead over Scott Brummel.
Followed by Adam Kroll, Chris Kramer, Brian Arthur #2 and Jason.
The Iowa State Cylcones win the Pop-Tarts Bowl December 28th:
12 games to go
Brian Arthur #2 moves back in front with Slade Sloan 2nd.
Followed by Adam Kroll and Scott Brummel with that Rosenthal next.
T.C.U. wins the New Mexico Bowl easily December 28th:
13 games to go
Scott Brummel has regained the lead.
Brian Arthur #2 and Slade Sloan are next.
Jason Stowe and David Anderson hanging around.
UConn beats NC and Nebraska wins December 28th:
14 games to go
This is correct: Brian Arthur #2 leads even though he's low on the recap.
Scott Brummel is making comeback. Jason Stowe and David Anderson are next best.
Southern Cal wins the Las Vegas Bowl December 27th:
16 games to go
Out of nowhere comes Chris Wagner - leader after Friday's games.
But Chris Kramer is very close behind. Then Slade Sloan and Adam Kroll.
Syracuse wins the Holidy Bowl December 27th:
17 games to go
Adam Kroll has regaind the lead. Slade Sloan, Chris Kramer and Chris Wagern next.
Arkansas wins the Liberty Bowl December 27th:
18 games to go
Ken Krofta and Slade Sloan lead at this point.
Vanderbilt wins the thoughtfully named Birmingham Bowl December 27th:
19 games to go
Adam Kroll now becomes a new leader with Ken Krofta closely behind.
Chris Kramer is a solid 3rd. David Anderson moves up to 4th. Slade Sloan drops off.
Navy appropriately wins the Armed Forces Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go
Slade Sloan is our new leader. Adam Kroll and Ken Krofta are next best.
Trailing the top 3 are Rosenthal and Chris Kramer.
Arkansas State wins the Ventures (Telstar?) Bowl December 26th:
21 games to go
Rosenthal slips ahead of Ken Krofta with Slade Sloan close behind.
Mark Behrman then Adam Kroll and Chris Kramer are next.
Rutgers only loses by 3 in the Rate Bowl December 26th:
22 games to go
We now have a big logjam - Rosenthal has slim lead over Slade Sloan and Ken Krofta.
Adam Kroll, Mark Behrman, Chris Kramer, Scott Brummel and Michael Popp and others close in.
Toledo wins the GameAbove Sports Bowl in 6OTs December 26th:
23 games to go
Scott Brummel still leads and Ken Krofta holds 2nd place.
Jason Stowe and Rosenthal are next best.
South Florida wins the Hawaii Bowl Christmas Eve:
24 games to go
Scott Brummel keeps going strong with Ken Krofta now 2nd best.
Rosenthal and Chris Kramer are next best.
Northern Illinois wins the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (in OT) December 23rd:
25 games to go
Scott Brummel has a good lead. Chris Kramer is 2nd best.
Ken Krofta and Adam Kroll are next best.
Texas-San Antonio wins the Myrtle Beach Bowl December 23rd:
26 games to go
Scott Brummel has built a solid lead.
Adam Kroll and Jason Stowe are next best followed by Chris Kramer and Zak White.
Through the pool's first 10 games,
the favorites in CFP games all cover December 21st:
27 games to go
Scott Brummel is our first EV leader!
Ken Krofta and Beau Hultquist are next best.
The last to finally lose a game, Zak White, is in 4th place.
Congrats to Whitey Stange winner of last year's Bowl Pool.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games - after the Gator Bowl January 2nd.
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games - after all game December 31st.
All Possibilities 256 possible outcomes of last 8 games - after Iowa-Missouri game December 30th.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games - after all games December 28th.
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games - after first 5 games December 28th.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games - after first 2 games December 28th.
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games - after all games December 27th.