Bowl Pool Expected Values
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Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I like to point out a key fact: In most years, the leaders on these early expected value reports have NOT ended up doing that well. But not this year, I hope!
I was unable to get a report with 29 games to go (due to overflow). 28 games left appears to be the max I can do..
Future Possibilities: Congrats to Denny Mitchell winner of the 42nd Annual Bowl Pool.
Current Status:
Penn State wins the Rose Bowl January 2nd:
Final Standings 1-Denny Mitchell 2-Megan & Jack 3-Bud Stowe 4-Tammy Rasmussen 5-Ben Weiler 6-Kid Weiler 7-Dave Neuleib 8-Loran Weiler.
If Utah had won the Rose Bowl January 2nd:
Final Standings 1-Denny Mitchell 2-Megan & Jack 3-Bud Stowe 4-Ben Weiler 5-Tammy Rasmussen 6-Rich Somsky 7-Jake Weiler 8-Loran Weiler.
Past Expected Values:
Mississippi State wins and Purdue wins and Tulane wins January 2nd:
1 game to go
Denny Mitchell, Bud Stowe, Megan & Jack, Tammy Rasmussen, Kid Weiler.
Southern Cal not winning has to be the worst beat I have ever seen - well, since that Arkansas game.
Ohio State loses a thriller by 1 in the second CFP Semi-Final Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl December 31st:
4 games to go
Denny Mitchell has only Bud Stowe that can overtake him. Megan & Jack are a strong 3rd.
Tammy Rasmussen has next best value with Ben Weiler and Kid Weiler looking to cash.
T.C.U. wins the first CFP Semi-Final Valero Fiesta Bowl December 31st:
5 games to go
Denny Mitchell now 28/32 chances to win it all. Megan & Jack 2nd, Bud Stowe 3rd with Matt Gateris gaining.
Iowa wins the Music City Bowl and Alabama wins the Allstate Sugar Bowl December 31st:
6 games to go
Denny Mitchell continues leading with Megan & Jack making big gain as well as Bud Stowe.
Trailing but with fair chances are Michael Popp and Kid Weiler.
Tennessee wins the Capital One Orange Bowl December 30th:
8 games to go
Denny Mitchell coasting. Megan & Jack gain a bit. Bud Stowe gets top pick home. And then Tammy Rasmussen.
Ohio wins the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl December 30th:
9 games to go
Ohio native Denny Mitchell improves his lead. Megan & Jack and Tammy Rasmussen slip while Bud Stowe gains.
Notre Dame wins the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl December 30th:
10 games to go
Cheer, cheer for Notre Dame Alum Denny Mitchell who has big lead. Megan & Jack improve a tad.
Tammy Rasmussen stays pat with Matt Gateris and Bud Stowe gaining some ground.
Pittsburgh wins the Tiger Sun Bowl December 30th:
11 games to go
Denny Mitchell builds big lead. Megan & Jack slide back as does Tammy Rasmussen.
Dave Neuleib reappears on the leaderboard. Trailing are Matt Gateris and Bud Stowe.
Maryland wins the Duke's Mayo Bowl December 30th:
12 games to go
Denny Mitchell regains the lead with Megan & Jack moving ahead of Tammy Rasmussen followed by Bud Stowe.
Washington wins the Valero Alamo Bowl December 29th:
13 games to go
Tammy Rasmussen edges out Denny Mitchell to now be leading.
Megan & Jack improve their chances as does Bud Stowe(Yay!).
Oklahoma covers in the Cheez-It Bowl December 29th:
14 games to go
Denny Mitchell still leads but Tammy Rasmussen and Megan & Jack draw closer.
Then we find Matt Gateris and Bud Stowe hanging around.
Minnesota wins the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl December 29th:
15 games to go
Denny Mitchell strong lead with Tammy Rasmussen gaining as well as Megan & Jack. And Bud Stowe is fading fast.
North Carolina loses by only 1 at the Holidy Bowl and Texas Tech wins the Texas Bowl December 28th:
16 games to go
Denny Mitchell leads then Tammy Rasmussen ahead of Bud Stowe and then Megan & Jack and César Mendoza.
Kansas makes unbelievable comeback to lose in OT but only by 2 in the Liberty Bowl December 28th:
18 games to go
Denny Mitchell leads then Bud Stowe and César Mendoza, Megan & Jack and Tammy Rasmussen.
Arkansas -2 1/2 not covering has to be the worst beat I have ever seen in my almost 50 years of sports betting.
Duke wins the Military Bowl December 28th:
19 games to go
Denny Mitchell is first then Bud Stowe and César Mendoza - a good team.
Megan & Jack also improve as Dave Neuleib falls back.
Wisconsin wins the Guaranteed Rate Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go
Denny Mitchell improves his lead. Bud Stowe loses a bit more but still 2nd.
César Mendoza next then Dave Neuleib and Megan & Jack all improving.
Battle of Eastern Carolina:
East Carolina wins the Birmingham Bowl December 27th:
21 games to go
Denny Mitchell has now taken over the lead.
Bud Stowe is next with César Mendoza charging.
Dave Neuleib continues to lose ground with Megan & Jack almost catching Pop.
Memphis wins the ServPro First Responder Bowl December 27th:
22 games to go
Bud Stowe slips and is barely ahead now of Denny Mitchell.
Dave Neuleib falls to third. César Mendoza climbs ahead of Megan & Jack.
Now things are about to get fast and furious from here on out!
Buffalo wins the Camellia Bowl December 27th:
23 games to go
Bud Stowe finally regains the lead from Dave Neuleib even though he gains in value.
Denny Mitchell makes a strong move closing in on the leaders. Megan & Jack are next best.
New Mexico State wins the Quick Lane Bowl December 26th:
24 games to go
Dave Neuleib remains in first with Bud Stowe gaining some ground.
Also gaining is Denny Mitchell and then Tammy Rasmussen.
Middle Tennessee wins the EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl December 24th:
25 games to go
It's still Dave Neuleib ahead of Bud Stowe.
Mike Pupel, Denny Mitchell, and Megan & Jack are trailing.
Wake Forest wins the Gasparilla Bowl December 23rd:
26 games to go
Dave Neuleib moves ahead of Bud Stowe but both gained ground.
Mike Pupel gains as well staying in 3rd. Tammy Rasmussen is best of the rest.
Gasparilla is pirate Jose Gaspar, Ye Mystic Krewe of Gasparilla - thus Tampa, FL. Makes sense.
Houston wins the Indepence Bowl December 23rd:
27 games to go
Bud Stowe and Dave Neuleib are locked in a bitter fight for the lead.
Mike Pupel is there in third place followed by Doug Kroll.
Air Force wins Armed Forces Bowl December 22nd:
28 games to go
Dave Neuleib leads on first Expected Values report.
Close behind is Bud Stowe who regrets his Baylor pick.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games - after Saturday's games December 31st.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games - after the Allstate Sugar Bowl December 31st.
All Possibilities 256 possible outcomes of last 8 games - after Capital One Orange Bowl December 30th.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games - after Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl December 30th.
All Possibilities 8,192 possible outcomes of last 13 games - after Valero Alamo Bowl December 29th.