Bowl Pool Expected Values
Back to Pool PageExpected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will probably be produced for all games on December 22nd.
Well, as you know, the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl between Boston College and Boise State got cancelled and treated as no contest. The rules handle this by reducing your weight one point on every game that is of a higher weight than placed on the cancelled game. This "revised" Bowl Pool reflects those proper weight adjustments such that it's a 1-38 weighted pool. Everything continues on normally. You might want to think of this as stacking your picks 1 to 39, then pulling out the cancelled game, and ones above each fall down one slot.
Future Possibilities:
Congrats to Michael Popp winner of the 39th Annual Bowl Pool.
Texas wins the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
final standings 1-Michael Popp 2T-Adam Kroll 2T-Pat Hagen 4-Curry's Clan 5-Doug Kroll 6-Tom Mitchell 7-Jake Weiler 8-Layne Wardenburg.
If Georgia had won the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
final standings 1-Michael Popp 2-Adam Kroll 3-Pat Hagen 4T-Layne Wardenburgh 4T-Doug Kroll 6-Chip Cotton 7-Ben Weiler 8-Tony Gallivan.
Current Status:
Washington covers in the Rose Bowl January 1st:
1 game to go Michael Popp won. Adam Kroll has edge over Pat Hagen. Doug Kroll a solid 4th. Then Curry's Clan and Layne Wardenburgh.
Past Expected Values:
Iowa, Kentucky, and L.S.U. win January 1st:
2 games to go Michael Popp clinches! Adam Kroll 2nd. Doug Kroll moves up to 3rd followed by Pat Hagen, Layne Wardenburgh, and Curry's Clan.
Northwestern and Texas A&M win December 31st:
5 games to go Michael Popp leads. Adam Kroll 2nd. Layne Wardenburgh move up to 3rd ahead of Pat Hagen. Then Doug Kroll and Madison Weiler.
Pittsburgh covers, Michigan State covers, and Oklahoma State wins December 31st:
7games to go Michael Popp still leading. Adam Kroll just barely ahead of Pat Hagen. Then Madison Weiler, Beth Steven, Ben Weiler, and Layne Wardenburg.
Virginia Tech covers in the Military Bowl December 31st:
10 games to go Michael Popp still leads. Adam Kroll slips but still 2nd. Tony Gallivan improves but still 3rd. Madison Weiler slips ahead of Beth Steven with Pat Hagen next.
Oklahoma covers in the Oraange Bowl National Semi December 29th:
11 games to go Michael Popp still leads. Adam Kroll improves some. Tony Gallivan holds 3rd. Beth Steven and Madison Weiler lead the rest.
Clemson wins the Cotton Bowl National Semi December 29th:
12 games to go Michael Popp improves. Adam Kroll still 2nd. Tony Gallivan back at 3rd ahead of Kevin Mitchell.
Florida, Virginia, and Nevada win December 29th:
13 games to go Kevin Mitchell's best scenario as he moves up to 3rd. Michael Popp still leads with Adam Kroll a solid 2nd. Trailing are Ben Weiler and Beth Steven.
Iowa State covers in the Alamo Bowl December 28th:
16 games to go Michael Popp improves yet even more. Adam Kroll improves his chances with Ben Weiler and Beth Steven fighting for 3rd now. Maribeth Stockton and Tony Gallivan follow.
Syracuse wins the Camping World Bowl December 28th:
17 games to go Michael Popp improves even more. Adam Kroll stays in 2nd with Tony Gallivan in 3rd. Dean Eggers leads the pack afar.
Auburns wins the Music City Bowl December 28th:
18 games to go Michael Popp still leads. Adam Kroll slips ahead of Tony Gallivan in battle for 2nd place. Ron Brooks and Dean Eggers far back.
Baylor wins the Texas Bowl December 27th:
19 games to go Michael Popp still leads. Tony Gallivan is a solid 2nd. Adam Kroll is firmly in 3rd place.
Wisconsin wins the New Era Pinstripe Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go Michael Popp still way in front. Tony Gallivan nicely in 2nd place with Ben Weiler 3rd followed by Beth Steven and Adam Kroll.
Duke wins the Independence Bowl December 27th:
21 games to go Michael Popp up to 70% chance of winning. Tony Gallivan improves in 2nd then next are Ben Weiler and Dean Eggers.
T.C.U. wins in OT the Cheez-It Bowl December 26th:
22 games to go Michael Popp pops another one. Tony Gallivan now 2nd, then theres' that Adam Kroll.
Minnesota wins the Quick Lane Bowl December 26th:
23 games to go Michael Popp is dominating! Dean Eggers leads those fighting for 2nd place.
Louisiana Tech wins the SOFI Hawai'i Bowl December 22nd:
25 games to go Michael Popp builds his lead. Adam Kroll slips ahead of Dean Eggers. Tim Holland and Tom Hughes are next.
Troy wins the Dollar General Bowl December 22nd:
26 games to go Michael Popp has eye-popping lead. Dean Eggers is in 2nd. Then Sparky & Wheezer and there's that Adam Kroll.
Also one person has been completely eliminated. But thanks for playing!
After Wake Forest wins and Army rolls December 22nd:
Michael Popp leads the recap and looks pretty strong.
Expected Values for Buffalo-Troy game are shown above.
After Florida International and B.Y.U. win December 21st:
FIU broke the all favorites win streak and made it so everyone has won at least one game.
BYU snapped all the perfect scores. Jessie Gonzalez has accumulated most points on his top heavy card.
Looks like 29 games left was too much to handle for expected values! But sometime soon!
After Next 3 Games of December 18th-20th:
8 games played and the favorites have one every one of them. Quite unusual for early bowl games!
In fact, that has left 6 entries with no correct picks yet.
Terry Cotton, Tom Hughes and Maribeth Stockton however are still perfect. Others have a very good pool going.
Next report (after 2 games of 12/21) should get first expected values!
After First 5 Games of December 15th:
Jessie Gonzalez could not have had a better day. Not only 5-0 perfect, but with the top 5 weights!
Sparky & Wheezer were almost as good and there were several other perfect scores:
Terry Cotton, Matt Feichtinger, Tom Hughes, Mark Davis, Jay Roskam, and Maribeth Stockton.
Many others did well only losing a small weight. 7 players missed them all.
Special Note: It happened last year (to 2 different players neither of which is playing this year),
but both Josh Hildreth and Dallas Johnson entered exactly identical picks.
I don't understand why one wouldn't make at least one or two personal preference adjustments from whatever "expert" they copied from!
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games - for Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl.
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games - after December 31st Games.
All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games - after December 31st 4 afternoon Games.
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games - after December 29th Games.
All Possibilities 8,192 possible outcomes of last 13 games - after first 3 games December 29th.
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games - after December 28th Games.