Bowl Pool Expected Values
Back to Pool PageExpected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will not come out until there are no more than 28 games left which takes about 12 hours to run.
Future Possibilities:
If Toledo wins the GoDaddy Bowl January 4th:
Final Standings 1-Rob Luther 2-Tim Curry 3-Dave Neuleib 4-Dave Drozd 5-Curry's Clan. Then Ken, Pat, Dean.
If Arkansas State wins the GoDaddy Bowl January 4th:
Final Standings 1-Rob Luther 2-Tim Curry 3-Curry's Clan 4-Dave Neuleib 5-Ken Auerbach. Then Dave, Pat, and The Dog.
Current Status:
Florida hangs on to win the Birmingham Bowl January 3rd:
1 game to go Rob Luther has won. Tim Curry clinches 2nd. Then Dave Neuleib better than Curry's Clan. Then Dave Drozd and Ken Auerbach. Pauterbach trails.
Past Expected Values:
Oklahoma State wins the Cactus Bowl January 2nd:
2 games to go Rob Luther has won. Then Tim Curry - Curry's Clan - Dave Drozd - Dave Neuleib - Ken Auerach - Pat Lauterbach.
U.C.L.A. wins the Alamo Bowl January 2nd:
3 games to go Rob Luther has won. Tim Curry then Dave Drozd and Dave Neuleib move ahead of Curry's Clan. Ken Auerach and Pat Lauterbach have some chances.
Tennessee wins the Taxslayer Bowl January 2nd:
4 games to go Rob Luther has won. Tim Curry and Curry's Clan are next with Dave Drozd and Dave Neuleib doing well.
Houston with a stunning comeback wins the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl January 2nd:
5 games to go Rob Luther has won. Tim Curry is still 2nd but Dave Drozd moves ahead of Curry's Clan with Dave Neuleib a solid 5th place.
Ohio State wins the Sugar Bowl and National Championship Semi-final Game January 1st:
6 games to go Rob Luther has won. Tim Curry improves as does Curry's Clan. Then Dave Drozd and Dave Neuleib with Pat Lauterbach leading the also-rans.
Oregon wins the Rose Bowl and First National Championship Semi-final Game January 1st:
Rob Luther has CLINCHED 1st place!
7 games to go Rob Luther has won! Then Tim Curry and Curry's Clan followed by Dave Drozd, Pat Lauterbach, Dave Neuleib,and Chip Cotton.
Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Missouri win January 1st:
8 games to go Rob Luther leads then Tim Curry moves up to 2nd, then Dave Drozd, Dave Neuleib, Pat Lauterbach and Curry's Clan.
Boise State and Georgia Tech both win December 31st:
11 games to go Rob Luther still leads but Dave Drozd climbs back to 2nd. Next are Pat Lauterbach and Chip Cotton then Dave Neuleib, Tim Curry, and Chris Wagner.
T.C.U. wins the Chickie Peach Bowl December 31st:
13 games to go Rob Luther up to 2/3rds chance to win it all. Next are Tim Curry, Chip Cotton, and then Dave Drozd. Chris Wagner and Curry's Clan are farther back.
Stanford wins the Foster Farms Bowl December 30th:
14 games to go Rob Luther improves. Tim Curry moves up to 2nd followed by Dave Drozd. Then Kathy & Chris and Chip Cotton.
Georgia wins the Belch Bowl December 30th:
15 games to go Rob Luther still leads. Then Dave Drozd and Tim Curry. Kathy & Chris, Chip Cotton and Chris Wagner trail.
Notre Dame wins the Music City Bowl December 30th:
16 games to go Rob Luther builds his lead some more. Tim Curry slighter better than Dave Drozd. Then Kathy & Chris, Ken Auerbach, and Chris Wagner.
Arkansas wins the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl December 29th:
17 games to go Rob Luther is on a roll. Then Dave Drozd is next. Tim Curry follows and then Kathy & Chris.
Clemson wins the Russell Athletic Bowl December 29th:
18 games to go Rob Luther continues winning. Kathy & Chris, Tim Curry, Dave Drozd, and Ken Auerbach are next.
Texas A&M wins the Liberty Bowl December 29th:
19 games to go Rob Luther still leads with Tim Curry and Dave Drozd next followed by Kathy & Chris and Ken Auerbach.
Nebraska covers the spread versus Southern Cal December 27th:
20 games to go Rob Luther improves his lead. Kathy & Chris and Tim Curry are next followed by Dave Drozd and Ken Auerbach.
Virginia Tech, Duke, South Carolina, and Penn State win December 27th:
21 games to go Rob Luther leads with Dave Drozd strong, then Peyton Popp, Kathy & Chris, and Tim Curry.
Louisiana Tech, Rutgers, and North Carolina State win December 26th:
25 games to go Rob Luther has big lead. Then Kathy & Chris and Dave Drozd.
After Unbelievable Central Michigan comeback and Rice win December 24th:
28 games to go Curry's Clan maintains having accumulated most points.
Look for actual Expected Values tomorrow!
I had trouble running the long expected values, so only the 18 minute ones got run this year.
After Marshall and Navy win December 23rd:
30 games to go Chip Cotton and Dana Stuhr last to go unbeaten.
Curry's Clan has garnered most points so far.
Rob Luther and Dave Drozd have given up very few points.
After Memphis OT Win December 22nd:
32 games to go Nathan Krofta continues perfect, as does: Chip Cotton, and Dana Stuhr.
Budman wins big and so no one is winless!
After First 5 Games of December 20th:
33 games to go Nathan Krofta garners most perfect points. Also perfect: Jake Eggers, Chip Cotton, Dana Stuhr, and Peyton Popp.
Budman is the only one who missed all of the first 5 games. Wonderful!
By the way, each of you have 1 chance in almost 275 trillion to have a perfect score.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games - after Friday's Games.
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games - after Tennessee-Iowa Game.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games - after New Years Day Games.
All Possibilities 256 possible outcomes of last 8 games - after First 3 New Years Day Games.
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games - after New Years Eve Games.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games - after Foster Farms Bowl.