Bowl Pool Expected Values
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Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
It looks like the first Expected Values listing will be produced by December 23rd.
NOTE:Texas A&M has withdrawn from the Gator Bowl game on December 31st. Therefore that game cannot count. All weights made that were higher than what you had on that game are reduced by 1.
And the Hawaii Bowl has also been cancelled. Everyone having fun? Weights likewise have been adjusted.
The East Carolina - Boston College game has been cancelled. And the Virginia - SMU game is out.
NOTE: More and more games are being cancelled.
I have fixed problmes with calculating the Expected Values. They should now be correct below.
Future Possibilities: Congrats to Jeff Meyer winner of the 41st Annual Bowl Pool.
Current Status:
Kansas State wins the Texas Bowl January 4th:
Final Standings 1-Jeff Meyer 2-Ralph Jeletz 3-Mike Pupel 4-Roger Bjork 5-Kathy & Chris 6-Peter Auerbach 7-Kathy & Chris 8-Nick Medhurst.
If L.S.U. had won the Texas Bowl January 4th:
Final Standings 1-Jeff Meyer 2-Nick Medhurst 3-Kathy & Chris 4-Jay Roskam 5-Toby White 6-Peter Auerbach 7-Ralph Jeletz 8-Mike Pupel.
Past Expected Values:
Baylor wins the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
1 game to go
Jeff Meyer clinches winning the 2022 Bowl Pool.
Kathy & Chris, Ralph Jeletz, Nick Medhurst and Mike Pupel best values.
Utah loses but covers the spread in the Rose Bowl January 1st:
2 games to go
Jeff Meyer takes the lead, but Kathy & Chris could still win.
Toby White has good value but can't win.
Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Kentucky win January 1st:
3 games to go
Toby White and Jeff Meyer have best expected values.
Kathy & Chris, Nick Medhurst and Mike Pupel are only others who could win.
Georgia wins the Orange Bowl CFP Semifinal Game December 31st:
6 games to go
Kathy & Chris hop up to the top. Toby White is 2nd best.
Jay Roskam is now ahead of Nick Medhurst with Mike Pupel next best.
Alabama wins the Cotton Bowl CFP Semifinal Game December 31st:
7 games to go
Nick Medhurst holds his lead. Jessie Gonzales improves some more.
Tammy Rasmussen is 3rd followed by Kathy & Chris.
Then we find Toby White and Jay Roskam with chances.
Arizona State wins the Las Vegas Bowl December 30th:
8 games to go
Nick Medhurst trying to hang on. Peter Auerbach is in 2nd place.
Jessie Gonzales is 3rd with Kathy & Chris 4th.
Michigan State wins the Peach Bowl December 30th:
9 games to go
Nick Medhurst still leads with Jessie Gonzales 2nd.
Jay Roskam is up to 3rd now then Tammy Rasmussen and Peter Auerbach.
Purdue wins the Music City Bowl December 30th:
10 games to go
Nick Medhurst still leads and Jessie Gonzales closes in.
Peter Auerbach is now 3rd and then Jeff Meyer.
Oklahoma wins the Valero Alamo Bowl December 29th:
12 games to go
Nick Medhurst leads. Jessie Gonzales is booming followed next by Jeff Meyer.
Clemson wins the Cheez-It Bowl December 29th:
13 games to go
Nick Medhurst increases his chances. Jessie Gonzalez is next.
Peter Auerbach still has good chances with Jeff Meyer and Scott Walker next.
Maryland wins New Era Pinstripe Bowl December 29th:
14 games to go
Nick Medhurst is leading. Scott Walker slightly ahead of Mike Pupel for 2nd best.
Jessie Gonzalez, Dave Neuleib, and Peter Auerbach are next on leaderboard.
Minnesota wins Guaranteed Rate Bowl December 28th:
15 games to go (or maybe less)
Nick Medhurst is leading. Doesn't much care about this game..
Jessie Gonzalez moves into 2nd place. Scott Walker moves up to 3rd. Then Dave Neuleib.
Texas Tech wins Autozone Libery Bowl December 28th:
17 games to go
Nick Medhurst is running aways with this.
Air Force wins SERVPRO First Responder Bowl December 28th:
18 games to go
Nick Medhurst has strong lead. The Dog, Jessie Gonzalez, and Dave Neuleib follow.
Western Michigan wins Quick Lane Bowl December 27th:
24 games to go
Nick Medhurst keeps getting stronger.
Dave Neuleib is 2nd best, then Jessie Gonzalez, and Mike Pupel.
Georgia State wins TaxAct Camellia Bowl December 25th:
25 games to go
Nick Medhurst increases his strong lead.
Way back is Dave Neuleib, then Jessie Gonzalez, Mike Pupel, and Jeff Meyer.
Through games of December 23rd:
27 games to go
Nick Medhurst leads on first Expected Values report.
Ken Auerbach is in 2nd place with Dave Neuleib who got first 11 right before losing is still third best.
Ken's son and current weekly pools leader Peter Auerbach is next followed by the Dog who only picks underdogs.
Through games of December 21st:
Dave Neuleib remains perfect. 11 games completed. 31 still to go though.
Through games of December 20th:
Surely through the first 9 games, Dave Neuleib must be leading. He got all 9 correct.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities The 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games - after 3 early games of January 1st.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games - after games of December 31st.
All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games - after Cotton Bowl December 31st.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games - after Peach Bowl December 31st.