Bowl Pool Expected Values
Back to Pool PageExpected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will not come out until there are no more than 28 games left which takes over 6 hours to run.
Future Possibilities:
If Alabama wins the National Championship Game:
final results Chris Kramer wins then Tom Bockhaus, Peter Auerbach, Bud Stowe, Ken Krofta.
If Notre Dame wins the National Championship Game:
final results Chris Kramer wins then Bud Stowe, Tom Bockhaus, Lisa Woodring, Eric Krofta.
Current Status:
Kent State barely covers in the GoDaddy.com Bowl:
1 game to go Chris Kramer has won. Next are Tom Bockhaus, Bud Stowe, Lisa Woodring, and Peter Auerbach.
Past Expected Values:
Mississippi wins the Compass Bowl:
2 games to go Chris Kramer clinches the championship! Tom Bockhaus will place strong, then Bud Stowe and Peter Auerbach.
Texas A&M wins the Cotton Bowl:
3 games to go Chris Kramer closing in on the big win. Then Tom Bockhaus, Peter Auerbach, and Garan Drozd.
Oregon wins the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl:
4 games to go Chris Kramer firms his lead followed by Tom Bockhaus, Peter Auerbach, Garan Drozd and Bud Stowe.
Florida State wins the Orange Bowl:
6 games to go Tom Bockhausn surges to the lead, then Garan Drozd returns to contention followed by Chris Kramer, Tom Hughes, Lisa Woodring, Peter Auerbach, and Bud.
Another 1/2 point game as Wisconsin covers but loses in Rose Bowl:
7 games to go Peter Auerbach takes very slim lead over Tom Hughes followed by Tom Bockhaus, then Garan Drozd and Zane Lennon.
Michigan loses but barely covers, and Georgia win the 2 Noon games:
8 games to go Zane Lennon takes lead in now a tight race over Peter Auerbach, Chris Kramer, Tom Hughes, Tom Bockhaus, Garan Drozd, Lisa Woodring, and others.
Oklahoma State smacks Purdue and Northwestern gets their 2nd-ever bowl victory:
10 games to go Garan Drozd still leads followed by Peter Auerbach and Zane Lennon, then Chris Kramer, Tom Hughes, and Lisa Woodring.
Clemson wins the Chick-fil-A Bowl:
12 games to go Garan Drozd and Peter Auerbach continue their battle followed by Chris Kramer, Tom Hughes, Zane Lennon, and Lisa.
Georgia Tech and Tulsa win:
13 games to go Garan Drozd followed by Peter Auerbach then Chris Kramer, Michael Popp, and Tom Hughes.
Vanderbilt wins the Music City Bowl:
15 games to go Garan Drozd stays put and Peter Auerbach falls back. Chris Kramer gains a bit then Michael Popp.
Michigan State wins the Wild Wings Bowl:
16 games to go Garan Drozd improves even more then Peter Auerbach. Farther back is Chris Kramer.
Texas wins the Alamo Bowl:
17 games to go Garan Drozd starts counting his money. Peter Auerbach is next then Shelly Drozd.
Syracuse and Arizona State win:
18 games to go Garan Drozd had huge lead, then Shelly Drozd, Peter Auerbach, Chris Kramer, Chris Webb, and Lisa.
Rice wins the Armed Forces Bowl:
20 games to go Garan Drozd has a good lead. Shelly Drozd, Peter Auerbach, and Tom Hughes next.
Minnesota covers in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas:
21 games to go Garan Drozd overtakes his Mom, then Lisa Woodring still hanging around.
Virginia Tech wins in Orlando:
22 games to go Shelly Drozd slips but still leads, then Lisa Woodring and Dave Neuleib.
Ohio U wins the Independence Bowl:
23 games to go Shelly Drozd takes the lead followed by Eric Krofa, Dave Neuleib, and Michael Popp.
Baylor wins the Holiday Bowl:
24 games to go Dave Neuleib takes slim lead over Shelly Drozd (where'd she come from?), then Mike Lauterbach and Lisa Woodring.
Cincinnati wins the Belk Bowl:
(A truly tough beat for Duke and lucky win for Cincinnati)
25 games to go Eric Krofta regains the lead closely followed by Dave Neuleib, then Mike Lauterbach.
San Jose State wins the Military Bowl:
26 games to go Dave Neuleib is new leader, then John Amsbaugh, Eric Krofta, and Mike Lauterbach.
Central Michigan wins the pizza in Detroit:
27 games to go John Amsbaugh still leads, followed by Dave Neuleib, Eric Krofta, Dave Gerdes, and Mike Lauterbach.
SMU wins the Hawaii Bowl:
28 games to go John Amsbaugh now leads, followed by Dave Neuleib, Eric Krofta, Zane Lennon, and Dave Gerdes.
Eric Krofta remains undefeated after first 4 games.
Eric Krofta appears to be only one to get first 4 games all correct.
And Nathan Krofta leads the recap at this point. Ken? Biding his time.
Only Gerdes and 4 others get first 3 picks all correct.
Dave Gerdes gets off to fast start getting his 35 and 34 picks won.
Nevada covers in first game. Most took Arizona.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of the final 2 games..
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games after the Fiesta Bowl completed.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games after New Year's Day games completed.
All Possibilities 256 possible outcomes of last 8 games after 4 New Year's Day early games completed.
All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games after Monday's games completed.
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games after Saturday's games completed.