Bowl Pool Expected Values
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Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
The Code is what signifies a player in the all possible outcomes files. These are listed below, but will only be posted when we get down to 16 games or so left.
I like to point out a key fact: In most years, the leaders on these early expected value reports have not necessarily ended up doing that well.
Future Possibilities: Congrats to Whitey Stange winner of the 43rd Annual Bowl Pool.
Current Status:
Washington wins the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
Final Standings 1-Whitey Stange 2-Denny Mitchell 3-Tanya Harrington 4-Mike Mahoney 5-Chris Kramer 6-Ryan Smith 7-Beau Hultquist 8T-Cesar Mendoza 8T-Heidi Weiler.
If Texas had won the Sugar Bowl January 1st:
Final Standings 1-Whitey Stange 2-Denny Mitchell 3-Tanya Harrington 4-Mike Mahoney 5-Cesar Mendoza 6-Chris Kramer 7T-Arnie's Army 7T-Jason Stowe.
Past Expected Values:
Michigan wins the Rose Bowl January 1st:
1 game to go
Whitey Stange wins! Denny Mitchell gets 2nd place. Tanya Harrington 3rd.
Mike Mahoney clinches 4th place. Chris Kramer and then Cesar Mendoza are next.
Wisconsin lose but covers in the ReliaQuest Bowl and Tennessee wins the Citrus Bowl and Oregon wins the Fiesta Bowl January 1st:
2 games to go
Denny Mitchell still has a chance. Otherwise Whitey Stange wins.
Tanya Harrington and then Mike Mahoney are next best.
Georgia wins the Orange Bowl and Toledo loses but covers in the Arizona Bowl December 30th:
5 games to go
Whitey Stange is starting to count his chickens.
Tanya Harrington and Denny Mitchell vie for 2nd best.
Mike Mahoney is next best followed by Cesar Mendoza.
And there's one chance that Chris Kramer #2 could actually win it all.
Maryland wins the Music City Bowl December 30th:
7 games to go
Whitey Stange leads but Tanya Harrington now is close behind.
Denny Mitchell is 3rd. Mike Mahoney 4th and then Chris Kramer #2.
Mississippi wins the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl December 30th:
8 games to go
Whitey Stange improves. Tanya Harrington edges ahead of Denny Mitchell.
Mike Mahoney improves and trying to score is Cesar Mendoza.
Missouri wins the Goodyear Cotton Bowl December 29th:
9 games to go
Whitey Stange maintains his lead over Denny Mitchell.
Tanya Harrington is not going away and Mike Mahoney sticks around.
Memphis wins the AutoZone Liberty Bowl December 29th:
10 games to go
Whitey Stange's unhappy but still leading. Denny Mitchell is a solid 2nd.
Tanya Harrington still is in 3rd place. Ryan Smith now rises to 4th.
Notre Dame wins the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl December 29th:
11 games to go
Whitey Stange leads with Denny Mitchell fighing like the Irish to catch him.
Tanya Harrington is still 3rd as Heidi Weiler falls back.
Kentucky beats the spread in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl December 29th:
12 games to go
Whitey Stange still leads. Denny Mitchell still 2nd and Tanya Harrington 3rd.
Mike Mahoney gains ground followed by Heidi Weiler.
Arizona wins the Valero Alamo Bowl December 28th:
13 games to go
Whitey Stange still leads. Denny Mitchell stays ahead of Tanya Harrington.
Whitey has better than 50% chance of winning the pool.
Kansas State wins the Pop-Tarts Bowl December 28th:
14 games to go
Whitey Stange still leads. Denny Mitchell gains moving ahead of Tanya Harrington.
Rutgers wins the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl December 28th:
15 games to go
Whitey Stange still leads. Tanya Harrington and Denny Mitchell improve.
Mike Mahoney leads the rest of the pack.
Boston College wins the Wasabi Fenway Bowl December 28th:
16 games to go
Whitey Stange backs BC in Boston gaining 1 more point.
Tanya Harrington and Denny Mitchell trail by even more.
Southern Cal wins the Holiday Bowl AND Oklahoma State wins the Texas Bowl December 27th:
17 games to go
The leading trio all build their lead: Whitey Stange followed by Tanya Harrington and Denny Mitchell.
West Virginia wins the Duke's Mayo Bowl December 27th:
19 games to go
Whitey Stange's winning streak ends. Last year's champ Denny Mitchell rises to 2nd place.
Tanya Harrington gets back in the groove as Kathy Holland slips.
Virginia Tech wins the Military GoBowling.com Bowl December 27th:
20 games to go
Whitey Stange continues with smooth sailing. Kathy Holland is 2nd best.
Tanya Harrington is a touch ahead of Denny Mitchell and then Heidi Weiler.
Kansas (thanks to 2 missed XPs) wins by 1/2 point in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl December 26th:
21 games to go
Whitey Stange keeps improving. Tanya Harrington and Kathy Holland are tied for 2nd followed by the Dog.
Texas State wins the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl December 26th:
22 games to go
Whitey Stange improves some more. Next is still Tanya Harrington.
Heidi Weiler and Zak White are tied for 3rd followed by Kathy Holland and the Dog.
Minnesota wins the Quick Lane Bowl December 26th:
23 games to go
Whitey Stange improves. Next is Tanya Harrington then the Dog and Kathy Holland.
Coastal Carolina wins the EasyPost Hawaii Bowl December 23rd:
24 games to go
Whitey Stange improves his expected value to over $200.
Dog and Heidi Weiler are good value in 2nd with Tanya Harrington 4th.
After the six games played throughout December 23rd:
Whitey Stange mostly kept winning and Tanya Harrington took some hits.
Georgia Tech wins the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl December 22nd:
Whitey Stange and Tanya Harrington keep winning!
South Florida smashes Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl December 21st:
Whitey Stange continues to pile up the most won points
And Tanya Harrington still has only lost 2 points!
Texas-San Antonio wins the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl December 19th:
Whitey Stange continues to pile up the most won points
But Tanya Harrington still has only lost 2 points.
Ken Auerbach finally lost one and it was a big 40.
Western Kentucky comes back from 0-28 to win the Famous Toastery Bowl in OT December 18th:
Ken Auerbach remains perfect!
After First 6 Games December 16th:
Ken Auerbach is the only perfect player. Amazing early picking by Ken.
Whitey Stange has amassed the most points, but lost a 29 weight.
Also, I see Tanya Harrington, 2nd most behind Whitey, has only missed a 2 weight.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games - after Monday, January 1st 3 early games.
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games - after Saturday, December 30th's games.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games - after Goodyear Cotton Bowl December 29th.
All Possibilities 1,024 possible outcomes of last 10 games - after AutoZone Libery Bowl December 29th.
All Possibilities 8,192 possible outcomes of last 13 games - after Valero Alamo Bowl December 28th.