Bowl Pool Expected Values And All Possible Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will not come out until there are no more than 28 games left which takes 8 hours to run.
If Alabama Wins:
final results
Larry Lesley and Megan & Jack tie, then Dave Hicks, Kathy & Chris, Dallas Johnson, Mark Davis
If L.S.U. Wins:
final results
Larry Lesley wins, then Megan & Jack, Kathy & Chris, Mark Davis, Dave Hicks, Dallas Johnson
Northern Illinois wins the GoDaddy.com Bowl:
1 game to go
Larry Lesley clinches 1st or tie, Megan & Jack could tie esle
2nd, then Kathy & Chris, Dave Hicks, Mark Davis, and Dallas Johnson
S.M.U. wins the Compass Bowl:
2 games to go
Megan & Jack and Larry Lesley continue battle to next game with Kathy & Chris, Dave Hicks, and Mark Davis placing strong
Arkansas wins the Cotton Bowl:
3 games to go
Megan & Jack regain the lead over Larry Lesley then Kathy & Chris and Dave Hicks
West Virginia wins the Orange Bowl:
4 games to go
Larry Lesley retains slim lead over Megan & Jack then Kathy & Chris, Troy Rosenmeyer(who can still win it all), and Mark Davis, and Dave Hicks
Michigan in OT wins the Sugar Bowl:
5 games to go
Larry Lesley takes over the lead from Megan & Jack followed by Mark Davis, Dave Hicks, and Kathy & Chris
Stanford loses in OT but squeeks out the points win in Fiesta Bowl:
6 games to go
Megan & Jack continue to lead but also strong are Larry Lesley, Mark Davis, and Dave Hicks, as Kathy & Chris fall off the pace
Oregon wins Rose Bowl:
7 games to go
Megan & Jack still lead followed by Larry Lesley, Mark Davis, Dave Hicks, Kathy & Chris, and Dallas Johnson
Houston, Michigan State, South Carolina, Florida win:
8 games to go
Megan & Jack still in lead followed strongly by Dave Hicks, Kathy & Chris, Larry Lesley, and Mark Davis
Auburn wins Chick-fil-A Bowl:
12 games to go
Megan & Jack still strong lead followed by Kathy & Chris then Dave Hicks, Larry Lesley, and Michael Popp
Texas A&M, Utah, Illinois, and Cincinnati win:
13 games to go
Megan & Jack still lead followed by Kathy & Chris then Dave Hicks, and Michael Popp
Oklahoma wins the Insight Bowl:
17 games to go
Megan & Jack still lead followed by Kathy & Chris then Ken Krofta, Larry Lesley, Michael Popp, and Dave Hicks
Wake Forest (the Demon Deacons I believe) beats the spread in the Music City Bowl:
18 games to go
Megan & Jack very closely followed by Kathy & Chris and Larry Lesley, then Jon Bockhaus and Ken Krofta
Rutgers wins Pinstripe Bowl:
19 games to go
Megan & Jack regain lead followed by Ken Krofta, Jon Bockhaus, Michael Popp, Larry Lesley, and Eric Krofta
B.Y.U. wins Armed Forces Bowl:
20 games to go
Jon Bockhaus new leader followed by Ken Krofta then Megan & Jack, Lisa Woodring, and Michael Popp
Baylor outslugs Washington in Alamo Bowl:
21 games to go
Megan & Jack retain lead, then Ken Krofta, Jon Bockhaus, Lisa Woodring, Kathy & Chris, and Michael Popp
Florida State wins Champs Sports Bowl:
22 games to go
Megan & Jack take the lead, then Zane, Jon Bockhaus, and Ken Krofta
Texas Wins Holiday Bowl:
23 games to go
Zane improves lead, then Ken Krofta, Megan & Jack, and Jon Bockhaus
Air Force covers the spread in Military Bowl:
24 games to go Zane Lennon
takes lead followed by Ken Krofta
After Purdue and NC State win:
25 games to go Kathy & Chris
with slim lead, then Hamms Bear, Ken Krofta, Zane and Megan & Jack
After Independence Bowl:
27 games to go Kathy & Chris
win another big game, Zane still 2nd, Mark Davis now 3rd.
After Hawaii Bowl:
28 games to go Kathy & Chris win another big game, indeed lead.
Zane Lennon is 2nd and then Michael Homan.
After Boise State wins Las Vegas Bowl: Kathy & Chris have amassed most points. Michael Homan has only lost 4 points. No one is perfect (except Jayden).
After Poinsettia Bowl: Ken Auerbach still perfect, Kathy & Chris win another big game. 6 players still yet to win.
After 4th game: Only Ken Auerbach is perfect. Many have missed all 4.
After first 3 games: Kathy & Chriswin all 3 big. Only 4 others are perfect.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 8 games after Friday's game completed.
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games after Wednesday's games completed.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games after Monday's games completed.
All Possibilities 256 possible outcomes of last 8 games after Monday's first 4 games completed.
All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games after Saturday's games completed.
All Possibilities 131,072 possible outcomes of last 17 games after Friday's games completed. (15M)