Bowl Pool Expected Values And All Possible Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will not come out until there are no more than 28 games left which takes 8 hours to run.
Oregon Beats Spread:
final results
(Steve Harrington, Pat Birchem, Tom Hughes, Bud Stowe, Dwight Lager, Denny Mitchell)
If Auburn Had Covered:
final results
(Michael Popp, Steve Harrington, Dan Williamson, Kathy Wagner, Dwight Lager, Dave Gerdes)
Boston College beats the spread:
1 game to go
(Steve Harrington or Michael Popp will win, then Pat Birchem, Dwight Lager, Tom Huges, Dan Williamson)
Pittsburgh Wins:
2 games to go
(Steve Harrington, Michael Popp, or Tom Hughes will win, then Dan Williamson, Bud, and Pat Birchem)
L.S.U. Wins Cotton Bowl:
3 games to go
(Michael Popp leads, then Bud Stowe, Steve Harrington, Dan Williamson, and Tom Hughes)
Miami(Ohio) WIns::
4 games to go
(Michael Popp reinforces his lead, then Steve Harrington, followed by Bud Stowe, Dwight Lager, Dan Williamson, Hughes, and Kathy)
Ohio State wins Sugar Bowl:
5 games to go
(Michael Popp still leads, then Steve Harrington, Bud Stowe, Tom Hughes, Dwight Lager, and Dan Williamson)
Stanford wins Orange Bowl:
6 games to go
(Michael Popp even bigger lead, then Steve Harrington, Bud Stowe, Kathy Wagner, and Tom Hughes)
Oklahoma wins Fiesta Bowl:
7 games to go
(Michael Popp has solid lead, followed by Tom Hughes, Pat Birchem, Kathy, Steve Harrington, and Bud)
Wisconsin beats the spread in Rose Bowl:
8 games to go
(Michael Popp regains lead, closely followed by Bud, Pat Birchem, and Tom Hughes, Kathy falling back)
Northwestern, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi State Win:
9 games to go
(Tom Hughes leads big, then Bud Stowe, Michael Popp, Pat Birchem, and Kathy Wagner)
Florida State Wins:
13 games to go
(Tom Hughes new leader, then Michael Popp, Kathy Wagner, the Dog, Dwight Lager, Dan Williamson, and Scott Walker)
Notre Dame and Central Florida Win:
14 games to go
(Michael Popp takes lead, then Kathy Wagner, Tom Hughes, Dwight Lager, and Dean Eggers)
South Florida Wins:
16 games to go
(Kathy Wagner has slim lead, then Tom Hughes and Michael Popp, followed by Desing, Lager)
Washington Wins:
17 games to go
(Kathy Wagner regains lead, then Dave Desing, Tom Hughes, Michael Popp, and Dwight Lager)
North Carolina Wins:
18 games to go
(Dave Desing is new leader, Kathy 2nd, then Dwight, Tom Hughes, and Jeff Hart)
Syracuse Wins Pinstripe Bowl:
19 games to go
(Kathy Wagner lead shrinks, Dwight Lager still 2nd, then Dave Desing, Tom Hughes, and Jeff Hart)
Army Wins first bowl in 25 years:
20 games to go
(Kathy Wagner leads, then Dwight Lager, Tom Hughes, Scott Walker, and Dave Desing)
Maryland, Illionis, and Oklahoma State Win:
21 games to go
(Kathy Wagner still leads, Dwight Lager charges, then Scott Walker and Tom Hughes)
Iowa Wins:
24 games to go
(Kathy Wagner leads, then Scott Walker, Tom Hughes, and Pat Birchem)
First 9 games have completed:
26 games to go
(Kathy Wagner has big Lead, followed by
Scott Walker, Pat Birchem, and Tom Hughes)
After first 6 games, Mike Furrow is perfect.
After first 3 games, 10 are still perfect.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games after Friday's game.
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games after Tuesday's Sugar Bowl.
All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games after New Year's Day games completed.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games after Saturday's 4 early games completed.
All Possibilities 8,192 possible outcomes of last 13 games after Friday's games completed.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games after Friday's Liberty Bowl.
All Possibilities 131,072 possible outcomes of last 17 games after Thursday's games completed. (15M)