Bowl Pool Expected Values
And All Possible Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well. The first expected values will not come out until there are no more than 28 games left which takes 8 hours to run.
Alabama wins National Championship Game:
Alabama
(the Dog, David Brown, Shelly Drozd, Bud Stowe,
Ken Krofta, Tim Holland tied with Kathy & Chris, Peter Auerbach)
If Texas had won National
Championship Game:
Texas (the Dog, Peter Auerbach, Pat Lauterbach, David Brown, Bud
Stowe, Chris Kramer, Dave Neuleib, Shelly Drozd)
Troy covers in the Obama Motors Bowl:
1 game to go
(the Dog, followed by David Brown, Peter
Auerbach and the Budman, Shelly Drozd, and Pat Lauterbach)
If Central Michigan had won
in the Obama Motors Bowl:
1 game to go (the Dog, followed by Shelly Drozd, Ellie Northway,
the Budman, Ken Krofta, and David Brown)
Iowa wins the Orange Bowl:
2 games to go
(the Dog, followed by David Brown, Shelly
Drozd, the Budman, Ken Krofta, Ellie Northway, and Peter Auerbach)
If Georgia Tech had won the
Orange Bowl:
2 games to go (the Dog, followed by Kathy & Chris, Dave Neuleib, the
Budman, Shelly Drozd, Tim Holland, and David Brown)
Boise State wins Tortilla Chip Party Bowl:
3 games to go
(the Dog clinches the win, followed in a bunch
by David Brown, Shelly Drozd, and the Budman, then Kathy & Chris, Dave Neuleib, and
Ken Krofta)
If T.C.U. had won
Tortilla Chip Party Bowl:
3 games to go (David Brown edges ahead of the Dog, followed by Kathy &
Chris, Doug Kroll, the Budman, Ken Krofta, and Tanya Harrington)
Texas Tech wins the Mike Leach Memorial Bowl:
4 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by David Brown, Kathy
& Chris, the Budman, Shelly Drozd, and Ken Krofta)
If Michigan State had won the
Remember What Craig James Has Done for Texas Football Bowl:
4 games to go (the Dog clinches first, followed by Ellie Northway, Peter
Auerbach, David Brown, the Budman, and Shelly Drozd)
East Carolina wins Non-Tyranny Bowl:
5 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by David Brown, the
Budman, Ellie Northway, Peter Auerbach, Kathy & Chris, and Shelly Drozd)
If Arkansas had won
Non-Tyranny Bowl:
5 games to go (the Dog leads, followed by Ken Krofta, Steve Harrington,
David Brown, Mark Behrman, and Kathy & Chris)
South Florida, Connecticut, and Mississippi win
1/2:
6 games to
go (the Dog leads, followed by David
Brown, Ken Krofta, Ellie Northway, Kathy & Chris, and Peter Auerbach)
If South Florida, Connecticut, and
Oklahoma State had won
1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by Ken Krofta, Steve
Harrington, Ellie Northway, and Peter Auerbach)
If South Florida, South Carolina,
and Mississippi had won
1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog eads, then Shelly Drozd, Ellie
Northway, Mark Behrman, Adam Kroll, and Tim Holland)
If South Florida, South Carolina,
and Oklahoma State had won
1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog and Ellie Northway lead, followed by
Ken Krofta, Doug Kroll, Tim Holland, and Peter Auerbach)
If Northern Illinois,
Connecticut, and Mississippi had won 1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by David Brown and
Kathy & Chris, then Peter Auerbach, Mark Berhman, and Steve Harrington)
If Northern Illinois,
Connecticut, and Oklahoma State had won 1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by Steve Harrington
and Peter Auerbach, then Kathy & Chris, Pat Lauterbach, and Ellie Northway)
If Northern Illinois, South
Carolina, and Mississippi had won 1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by Mark Behrman, Tim
Holland, Kathy & Chris, Ellie Northway, David Brown, and Shelly Drozd)
If Northern Illinois, South
Carolina, and Oklahoma State had won 1/2:
6 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by Ellie Northway, Tim
Holland, Pat Lauterbach, Peter Auerbach, Mark Behrman, and Steve Harrington)
Florida wins Bergwood's Sweetness Bowl:
9 games to go
(the Dog leads, followed by Ellie Northway,
Peter Auerbach, Steve Harrington, Mark Behrman, and Tim Holland)
If Cincinnati had won
Bergwood's Sweetness Bowl:
9 games to go (the Dog leads, followed by Peter Auerbach, Shelly Drozd,
Steve Harrington, and Dave Neuleib)
Ohio State wins Pretty Flower Bowl:
10 games to go
(the Dog improves lead, followed by Peter
Auerbach, Shelly Drozd, Ellie Northway, Steve Harrington, Behrman, and Dave Neuleib)
If Oregon
had won Pretty Flower
Bowl:
10 games to go (the Dog has lead, then Shelly Drozd and Ken Krofta,
followed by Peter Auerbach, Kathy & Chris, and Steve Harrington)
Northwestern, Florida State, and LSU win 1/1:
11 games
to go (the Dog has huge lead, then
Peter Auerbach, Shelly Drozd, Ken Krofta, Steve Harrington, and Ellie Northway)
If Northwestern, Florida State, and
Penn State had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(the Dog leads, closely followed by Pat
Lauterbach, and Shelly Drozd, then Ellie Northway, Doug Kroll, and Mark Behrman)
If Northwestern, West Virginia, and
LSU had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(the Dog in the lead, then Ellie Northway,
Keith Wilson, Erin Kroll, Peter Auerbach, the Budman, and Pat Lauterbach)
If Northwestern, West Virginia, and
Penn State had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(Pat Lauterbach leads over Ellie Northway,
followed by Tom Esber, Shelly Drozd, Dan Williamson, and Steve Elfvin)
If Auburn, Florida State, and LSU had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(the Dog in the lead, then Mike Lauterbach,
Tanya Harrington, Peter Auerbach, Shelly Drozd, Dave Gerdes, and Adam Kroll)
If Auburn, Florida State, and Penn
State had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(Pat Lauterbach takes lead, then the Dog,
Shelly Drozd, Mike Lauterbach, Doug Kroll, Terry Cotton, Mark Behrman, and Ellie)
If Auburn, West Virginia, and LSU had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(Keith Wilson moves into lead, followed by the
Dog, Megan & Jack, Ellie Northway, the Lauterbachs, and Erin Kroll)
If Auburn, West Virginia, and Penn
State had won 1/1:
11 games to go
(Pat Lauterbach takes lead, then Keith Wilson,
Megan & Jack, Ellie Northway, Michael Homan, and Tom Esber)
Iowa State and Virginia Tech Win 12/31:
14 games to
go (the Dog in the lead, then Pat
Lauterbach, Ellie Northway, Shelly Drozd, Keith Wilson, and Peter Auerbach)
If Iowa State and Tennessee
had won 12/31:
14 games to go
(the Dog takes huge lead, followed by Peter
Auerbach, Shelly Drozd, Doug Kroll, and the Harringtons)
If Minnesota and Tennessee
had won 12/31:
14 games to go
(the Dog has lead with Mark Behrman
close, then Peter Auerbach, Tim Holland, John Henson, Michael Homan, and Shelly)
If Minnesota and Virginia
Tech had won 12/31:
14 games to go
(John Henson takes over lead, followed by Megan
& Jack, then Tim Holland, Mark Behrman, Ellie Northway, and the Dog)
Air Force, Stanford, and Navy Win 12/31:
16 games
to go (the Dog takes big lead, then
Mark Behrman, Shelly Drozd, Peter Auerbach, Ellie Northway, and Pat Lauterbach)
If Air Force, Stanford, and
Missouri had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Mark Behrman in lead, followed by Steve
Harrington, Keith Wilson, Tanya Harrington, Ellie Northway, and Pat Lauterbach)
If Air Force, Oklahoma, and
Navy had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Tim Holland has big lead, then Kathy &
Chris, Megan & Jack, Ken Auerbach, Dave Neuleib, Pat Lauterbach, and Mark Behrman)
If Air Force, Oklahoma, and
Missouri had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Tim Holland has big lead, then Kathy &
Chris, Mark Behrman, Pat Lauterbach, Keith Wilson, and the Harringtons)
If Houston, Stanford, and
Navy had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Megan & Jack move into lead, followed by
John Henson, the Dog, Terry Cotton, Tanya, and Pat Lauterbach)
If Houston, Stanford, and
Missouri had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Tanya Harrington takes lead, followed by Terry
Cotton, Dana Stuhr, Pat Lauterbach, Mark Behrman, and Ellie Northway)
If Houston, Oklahoma, and
Navy had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Megan & Jack lead with Tim Holland close
behind, then Kathy & Chris, Terry Cotton, Pat Lauterbach, and Dave Neuleib)
If Houston, Oklahoma, and
Missouri had won 12/31:
16 games to go
(Tim Holland then Kathy & Chris still lead,
followed by Terry Cotton, Tanya, Pat Lauterbach, and Gary Lawrance)
Nebraska wins Pacific Vacation Bowl:
19 games to go
(Tim Holland back in front, then Kathy &
Chris, Pat Lauterbach, Mark Behrman, Megan & Jack, Tanya, and Terry Cotton)
If Arizona had won Pacific
Vacation Bowl:
19 games
to go(Kathy & Chris pad lead, followed by Tim Holland, Keith Wilson, Tanya
Harrington, Ken Auerbach, and Mark Davis)
Idaho wins Blue Plate Special Bowl:
20 games to go
(Kathy & Chris still lead, followed by Tim
Holland, Tanya Harrington, Mark Behrman, Keith, and Megan & Jack)
If Bowling Green had won Blue
Plate Special Bowl:
20 games
to go(Tim Holland leads over Kathy & Chris, followed by Bob Werhle, Dave
Neuleib, and Ken Auerbach)
Wisconsin wins Losers Sports Bowl:
21 games to go
(Kathy & Chris have slim lead over Tim
Holland, followed far behind by Mark Behrman, Bob Werhle, and Tanya )
If Miami(Flo) had win Losers
Sports Bowl:
21 games
to go(Kathy & Chris, Tim Holland, and Keith Wilson lead, followed far
behind by Mark Davis, Terry Cotton, and Bud)
U.C.L.A. wins Big Bird Bank Bowl:
22 games to go
(Kathy & Chris regain lead, closely
followed by Tim Holland, then Keith Wilson)
If Temple had won Big Bird Bank
Bowl:
22
games to go(Keith Wilson leads, followed by Ken Auerbach, then Tom Hughes,
Ellie Northway, and Kathy & Chris)
Georgia wins Dependent Bowl:
23 games to go
(Keith Wilson finally moves into lead, followed
by Kathy & Chris, Tim Holland, and Ken Auerbach)
If Texas A&M had won
Dependent Bowl:
23
games to go (Kathy & Chris still lead, then Ken Auerbach, Tom
Hughes, Dave Neuleib, and Steve Tyrrel)
Clemson wins Musical Bowl:
24 games to go
(Kathy & Chris take over lead, followed by
Ken Auerbach, Keith Wilson, Tim Holland, and Tom Hughes)
If Kentucky had won Mucical
Bowl:
24 games
to go (Tim Holland leads, followed by Dave Neuleib, Ken Auerbach, the
Dog, Larry Lesley, and the Budman)
North Carolina wins Car Wash Bowl then Southern Cal
wins Emerald City Bowl:
25 games to
go (Tim Holland takes lead, followed
by Ken Auerbach, Dave Neuleib, Kathy&Chris, Tom Hughes, and the Dog)
If North Carolina then Boston
College had won:
25
games to go (Ken Auerbach has solid lead, followed by the Dog, Tom
Hughes, John Amsbaugh, and Ken Johnson)
If Pittsburgh then Boston
College had won:
25
games to go (John Amsbaugh regains lead, followed by Ken Auerbach, Dave
Drozd, Keith Wilson, and Kathy & Chris)
If Pittsburgh then Southern Cal
had won:
25
games to go (Kathy & Chris take lead, followed by Keith Wilson, Tim
Holland, and John Amsbaugh)
Marshall wins Crappy Pizza Bowl:
27 games to go
(Ken Auerbach in lead, followed by
Kathy&Chris, John Amsbaugh, Tim Holland, Keith Wilson, and Tom Hughes)
If Ohio had won Crappy Pizza
Bowl:
27
games to go (Dave Neulieb in lead, followed by John Amsbaugh, Keith
Wilson, Tom Hughes, Sean, the Dog, and Scott Holland)
First 6 games have completed:
28 games to go
(John Amsbaugh has Lead, followed by
Dave Neuleib, Keith Wilson, and Ken Auerbach)
After first 5 games, Keith Wilson has lost only 1 point.
After first 4 games, the 2 anti-pickers rise to the top. No one is perfect.
After first 3 games, 5 are still perfect.
After first 2 games, Tonja Furrow wins both with her top 2 weights.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games after Tuesday's Orange Bowl game completed.
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games after Monday's bowl game completed.
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games after Saturday's bowl games completed.
All Possibilities 64 possible outcomes of last 6 games after Saturday 3 afternoon games completed.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games after New Year's Day bowl games completed.
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games after Friday's 3 early games completed.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games after Thursday's games completed.
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games after Thursday's 3 afternoon games completed. (7.5M)
All Possibilities 524,288 possible outcomes of last 19 games after Wednesday's games completed. (60M)