29th Annual Bowl Pool

Bowl Pool Expected Values
And All Possible Outcomes

Expected Values:

Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.

The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all.  The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place.  And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).

I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.  However, this year, the early expected values may have more merit, since 7 games have been played before the very first one has been produced.

Florida wins National Championship game:
Florida Wins (Jenna, Tim, Wehrle, Dog, Channing Lennon, Larry, Hughes, Tyler Drozd)

Tulsa wins penultimate bowl game:
1 game to go (Jenna piles it on, then Dog, Tim doesn't care, then Larry, Hughes, Wehrle)

Ohio State beats spread in Fiesta Bowl:
2 games to go (Jenna Johnson clinches win, then Dog & Tim, followed by Hughes, Larry Lesly and Wehrle)

Connecticut wins in Toronto:
3 games to go (Jenna Johnson almost clinches, Tim still a chance, then the Dog, Wehrle, Hughes)

Undefeated Utah wins in Sugar Bowl:
4 games to go (Jenna Johnson lookin' good, then the Dog, Tim Holland, Ray Sigler, and Tom Hughes)

Kentucky wins Knee-cap Liberty Bowl:
5 games to go (Tim Holland slight lead over Jenna, then Sigler, the Dog, Bockhaus, Wehrle, and Larry)

Mississippi shakes things up with win in Cotton Bowl:
6 games to go (Jenna leads barely, then Tim, Wehrle, Sigler, Lesley, followed by Dog, Bochaus, Neuleib)

Virginia Tech wins in Orange Bowl:
7 games to go (Tim Holland regains lead, then Larry Lesley, Ray Sigler, Bob Wehrle, Bockhaus, Jenna, and the Dog)

Southern Cal wins Rose Bowl:
8 games to go (Larry Lesley just ahead of Tim Holland, then Ray Sigler, Bob Wehrle, Tom Bockhaus, and Jenna)

Nebraska and Georgia win New Year's Day games:
9 games to go (Larry Lesley, Tim Holland, Tom Bockhaus, Ray Sigler, Jenna Johnson, Bob Wehrle)

Iowa starts new year with easy win in Outback Bowl:
11 games to go (Larry Lesley, then Tim Holland, Tom Bockhaus, the Dog, Jenna, and Ray Sigler)

L.S.U. wins Chickie Bowl 12/31:
12 games to go (Larry Lesley still leads, then Tim, followed by Tom Hughes, the Dog, and Tom Bockhaus)

Kansas wins Insight Bowl in Tempe:
13 games to go (Larry Lesley with big lead, then Tim, followed by Tom Bockhaus, and Tom Hughes)

Vanderbilt wins in Nashville:
14 games to go (Larry leads big, then Tim, the Dog, Tom Bockhaus, Tom Hughes, and Jenna)

Oregon State wins Sun Bowl 3-0:
15 games to go (Larry has strong lead, then Tim in 2nd, followed byJenna & Tom Bockhaus)

Houston wins Armed Services Bowl 12/31:
16 games to go (Larry increases lead, then Tim, Jenna, Sean & the Dog)

Rice & Oregon win 12/30:
17 games to go (Larry Lesley overtakes Tim Holland, then Jenna, Sean, and the Dog)

Maryland wins on Blue field in Boise:
19 games to go (Tim still leads, Larry Lesley solid 2nd, then Tom Bockhaus, the Dog, and Jenna)

Northwestern takes Missouri to OT at Alamo Bowl:
20 games to go (Tim Holland leads big, Larry Lesley into 2nd, then Sean Stowe climbs to 3rd followed by the Dog and Tom Bockhaus)

North Carolina State covers spread in PapaJohns.com Bowl:
21 games to go (Tim builds huge lead, then Ben & Ken Johnson, followed by Jenna, Hughes, Lesley, and the Dog)

Louisiana Tech wins Independence Bowl:
22 games to go (Tim Holland has big lead with Ben in 2nd, then Hughes, Larry Lesley, and Jenna Johnson)

Miami just barely beats spread against Cal in Emerald Bowl:
23 games to go (Tim Holland followed closely by Ben pulling away from pack, Hughes next)

Florida State smacks Wisconsin in Orlando:
24 games to go (Tim Holland swings into lead, Ben falls to 2nd., then Hughes, Mike Lauterbach, Tyler Drozd, and others)

West Virginia Edges NC in Meineke Car Care Bowl thriller:
25 games to go (Ben Liang back in front, Tim Holland remains strong, Tom Hughes slips to 3rd)

Florida Atlantic wins Motor City Bowl:
26 games to go (Tom Hughes takes over lead, then Ben Liang and Tim Holland)

First 7 games have completed:
27 games to go (Ben Liang, Tim Holland, Tom Hughes take lead after Dave Gerdes got off to hot start)

With 28 games to go, Tim Holland probably led expected values since he was still perfect.

With 29 games to go, Dave Gerdes finally lost a game, Tim Holland remained perfect.

After first 4 games, Dave Gerdes certainly led winning all 4 with his top weights.

Players and Payouts:

Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.

See Exact Chances:

The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties).  After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.

These won't show till 16 games or so to go.  (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)

All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games after Monday's game.

All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games after Saturday's game.

All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games after Friday's games complete.

All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games after Thursday New Years Day games complete.

All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games after Thursday's afternoon games completed (going into Rose Bowl)

All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games after Wednesday's games completed (going into New Year's Day)

All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games after Wednesday's first 3 games completed (1.8M)

All Possibilities 131,072 possible outcomes of last 17 games after Tuesday's games completed (15M)