Bowl Pool Expected
Values
And All Possible
Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
1 game to go (Henson still doesn't clinch, Keith can still tie)
2 games to go (Henson
clinches, Keith could still tie)
3 games to go (Lanes and Keith Wilson still have a chance)
4
games to go
(John Henson will win with Colorado)
5 games to go
(Henson, J&G)
6
games to go
(Henson, Jen,
J&G)
8 games to go (Henson
leads Lanes and Jen into New Year)
9 games to go (John Henson takes
over lead)
10 games to go
12 games to go
13 games to go (Judy & Gaylord
Lane lead)
14 games to go
15 games to go (Dwight
Lager takes lead)
16 games to go
17 games to go
(Cesar regains the lead)
18 games to go (Pat Lauterbach
now leads)
19 games to go
(Hail Cesar! Our new leader)
21 games to go
22 games to go
(Jen Mattes takes early lead)
Sour Grapes:
If East Carolina had won (Blew 38-8 halftime lead. Tied with 7 seconds to go. Lost in second overtime.)
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
All Possibilities The 2 possible outcomes of the last game
All Possibilities
The 4
possible outcomes of
last 2 games
All Possibilities
The 8
possible outcomes of
last 3 games
All Possibilities
16
possible outcomes of
last 4 games
All Possibilities
64
possible outcomes of
last 6 games
All Possibilities
256 possible outcomes of
last 8 games (start of New Year's day).