Bowl Pool Expected
Values
And All Possible
Outcomes
1 game to go (Bruce Karn Clinches!)
2 games to go
(Miami - Karn,
else Holland vs Kroll)
3 games to go
(Notre Dame
would clinch it for Doug Kroll)
4 games to go
(Tyler
Collapses. It's Kroll, Holland, and now Karn. Darn!)
6 games to go
(Doug Kroll
catches Tyler, Holland & Karn strong 3rds.)
8 games to go
(Texas A&M
Blows It. Tyler Back in Big Lead.)
10 games to go
(Tyler misses
top pick. Scott Holland closes in.)
11 games to go
(Tyler has
better than 50-50 chance of being First!)
13 games to go
15 games to go (Tyler Drozd takes big lead!)
17 games to go
18 games to go
19 games to go
21 games to go
(Tyler Drozd takes lead)
22 games to go
23 games to go (Larry
Lesley takes early lead)
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for the top 10. After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
Final Outcomes 2 possible outcomes
All Possibilities 4 outcomes of the final 2 Games (shows all placements)
All Possibilities
8 outcomes of the final 3 Games
All Possibilities
16 outcomes of final 4 Games
All Possibilities
64 outcomes with 6 Games to go
All Possibilities
256 outcomes with 8 Games to go (start of New Year's
Day)