21st Annual Bowl Pool

Bowl Pool Expected Values!

But What If Only ...?

Expected Values with:

1 game to go

2 games to go
3 games to go
4 games to go
6 games to go
8 games to go (Expected Values Start of New Year's Day)
9 games to go
10 games to go
12 games to go
14 games to go
15 games to go
16 games to go
17 games to go
18 games to go
19 games to go
20 games to go
21 games to go

Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.

The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all.  The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place.  And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).

I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.

If Only:

Had Won!

Players and Payouts:

Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.

See Exact Chances:

The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and list the exact scores and order of placement for the top 12.  After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.

All Complete Results  (The final 4 possibilities of the last 2 games)

All Possibilities  (all 64 possibilities of the last 6 games)

All Possibilities  (all 256 possibilities of the last 8 games)