Bowl Pool Expected Values!
Carl Anderson Wins Pool!
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assumming each each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
One other special note for this year. Regrettably, I removed tie-breakers this year. The expected values assume tie-breakers are in place. Therefore, the numbers are not quite accurate, since this year, ties will split proceeds.
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
See Exact Chances:
With 8 games to go:
The Final 256 Possibilities
File is 256 lines, each 114 wide. (29K)
Formatted Excel Version
Suitable for Printing
The all-possiblities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the top 10 finishers with their scores. It is possible a tie for the last position could occur and not be shown. After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.