Bowl Pool Expected Values
And All Possible Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
L.S.U. wins National Championship Game 1/7:
L.S.U. Wins (Kathy Wagner wins, then
Garan Drozd, Harrington, Brawner, Hilbert, Ray, Todd Stuhr, Steve Dieke, Todd Johnson)
Kansas wins at Oranage Bowl 1/3:
1 games to go (Kathy Wagner leads, Ray
(Charles Entry can also win), thenTodd Stuhr, Steve Harrington, Garan Drozd, Pat
Lauterbach)
West Virginia wins Fiesta Bowl 1/2:
2 games to go (Kathy Wagner leads,
Charles(err.. Ray) and Barney who could still win, thenTodd Stuhr)
Georgia wins Sugar Bowl easily 1/1:
3 games to go (Kathy Wagner, Barney
Hilbert, Charles(err.. Ray) way ahead of pack)
Southern Call wins Rose Bowl big 1/1:
4 games to go (Kathy Wagner leads, then
Charles, Barney Hilbert, Todd Stuhr, and Garan Drozd)
Tennessee, Missouri, Michigan win, & Virginia
covers 1/1:
5 games to go (Kathy Wagner takes over
lead, then Charles, Todd Stuhr, Barney Hilbert, Garan Drozd)
Oklahoma State & Auburn win 12/31:
9 games to go (Charles builds even
bigger lead, then Kathy Wagner, Todd Johnson, with others far behind)
Kentucky finally wins 12/31:
11 games to go (Charles builds huge
lead, then Keith, Todd, Kathy, and Dave Neuleib)
Oregon & Fresno State win 12/31:
12 games to go (Charles, then Keith Reynolds,Todd Johnson, Garan Drozd,
and Steve)
Califormina wins first game
12/31:
14 games to go (Charles builds strong
lead, then Keith, Dave Drozd, Steve, Todd Johnson and others close)
Alabama wins Independence Bowl 12/30:
15 games to go (Charles still in lead, then Steve Harrington, and Keith
Reynolds leads pack of others)
Penn State wins at Alamo Bowl 12/29:
16 games to go (Charles, then Alan, Dan
Williamson, Steve, and sevaral others real close)
Mississippi State wins Liberty Bowl 12/29:
17 games to go (Charles has stronger lead, then César, Harrington, Tim
Holland, and Alan Brawner)
Wake Forest wins 12/29:
18 games to go (Charles, then César,
Steve Harrington, Kathy Wagner)
TCU & Oregon State win 12/28:
19 games to go (Charles takes charge, then Neuleib, César)
Michigan State squeaks by B.C. 12/28:
21 games to go (César, and Dave
Neuleib, then Hughes, the Dog, and Charles)
Texas Wins Holiday Bowl 12/27:
22 games to go (César edges ahead of the Dog, then Dave Neuleib,
Hughes, Charles, and Dennis Fulton)
Central Michigan covers in Motor City 12/26:
23 games to go (The Dog wins another,
then Huges, César, and Dave Neuleib)
East Carolina wins the Hawaii Bowl 12/23:
24 games to go (The Dog still leads, then Tom Hughes and César Mendoza)
Southern Miss & U.C.L.A. beat the
spread 12/22:
25 games to go (The Dog, Tom Hughes,
César Mendoza, and Charles (deciding to play after all) take opening lead)
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 16 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games after Fiesta Bowl.
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games after New Year's Day's games..
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games after Rose Bowl..
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games after 4 early New Year's Day games.
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games going into New Year's Day's games..
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games after Kentucky win.
All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games after Oregon & Fresno State wins.
All Possibilities 16,384 possible outcomes of last 14 games after Cal win.
All Possibilities 32,768 possible outcomes of last 15 games after Sunday's game completed (3.2M)
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games after Saturday's games completed (7.5M)