Bowl Pool Expected Values
And All Possible Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
Florida shocks Ohio State 1/9:
Florida Wins (César Mendoza finally
wins, then Tom Hughes, the Hamm's Bear, Jessica & Marnie, Eric Krofta, and Mike
Lauterbach)
L.S.U. wins the Sugar Bowl 1/3:
1 game to go (César(Flo) -v- Hamm's
Bear(OhSt), then Tom Hughes, Eric Krofta, and Mike Lauterbach)
Louisville wins Orange Bowl 1/2:
2 games to go (César has not quite
clinched yet, the Hamm's Bear only one else who can win, then Tom Hughes, and Jessica
& Marnie)
Boise State wins in an unbelievable, greatest
finish to a game I've ever seen in the Fiesta bowl game 1/1: {WHAT A HELL OF A GAME!}
3 games to go (César 7/8 likely to win
it all, the Hamm's Bear only one else who can win, then Jessica & Marnie, Tom Hughes,
and Dave Neuleib)
Southern Cal wins the Rose Bowl 1/1:
4 games to go (César with big lead,
followed by Tom Hughes, the Hamm's Bear, Eric Krofa, and Garan Drozd)
Wisconsin wins and Georgia Tech covers 1/1:
5 games to go (César closes in on win,
followed by Jessica & Marnie, the Hamm's Bear, and Dave Neuleib)
Penn State wins and Nebraska covers to start
the New Year:
7 games to go (César has strong lead,
followed by Sean, Alan Brawner, Hamm's Bear, and Dustin Drozd)
Nevada "wins" on the blue turf 12/31:
9 games to go (César odds-on to win it
all, followed by Alan Brawner and the Bear virtually tied, then Dustin Drozd and Sean)
Georgia wins the Chick-fil-A Bowl 12/30:
10 games to go (César completes a fine
day followed by the Hamm's Bear, and Alan Brawner)
Iowa "wins" the Alamo Bowl 12/30:
11 games to go (César storms to huge
lead, followed by the Bear, Jessica & Marnie, Alan Brawner, and Layne Wardenburg)
Navy wins in Charlotte 12/30:
12 games to go (César Mendoza takes
over lead, Hamm's Bear 2nd, followed by Jessica & Marnie)
Maryland and Minnesota (in spite of greatest
comeback win by Texas Tech in Bowl history) "win" 12/29:
13 games to go (Hamm's Bear still leads,
but Sean Stowe & Lisa Woodring tied for 2nd, then César)
South Carolina wins the Liberty Bowl 12/29:
15 games to go (The Hamm's Bear builds
big lead, then Sean, César, and Gary Lawrance)
Kentucky and Missouri "win" 12/29:
16 games to go (The Bear finally misses
one but still leads, followed by Sean and then César Mendoza)
Rutgers & California win 12/28:
18 games to go (The Hamm's Bear remains
undefeated, then come Sean Stowe and Dave Neuleib)
Oklahoma State wins the Independence Bowl 12/28:
20 games to go (The Bear stays
undefeated, followed by Dave Neuleib, Sean, then Chris Wagner)
Florida State wins Emerald Bowl 12/27:
21 games to go (The Hamm's Bear - Only
Undefeated - Leads, then Chris Wagner and Dave Neuleib)
Hawaii wins the Hawaii Bowl 12/24:
22 games to go (Sean regains the lead,
then the Bear, and Steve Voss)
Utah wins Armed Forces Bowl 12/23:
23 games to go (Pat Birchem, Steve Voss,
and The Hamm's Bear take lead)
South Florida wins the PapaJohns.com Bowl
12/23:
24 games to go (Sean Stowe and then
Kelly Gordon lead)
T.C.U. & B.Y.U. win 12/19 &
12/21:
25 games to go (Mike Lauterbach,
John Amsbaugh, Sean Stowe, and Chris Kramer take opening lead)
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 12 games or so to go. (Warning --- very large file with more than 12 games to go)
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games after Orange Bowl 1/2 game completed
All Possibilities 8 possible outcomes of last 3 games after Fiesta Bowl 1/1 game completed
All Possibilities 16 possible outcomes of last 4 games after Rose Bowl 1/1 game completed
All Possibilities 32 possible outcomes of last 5 games after first 4 1/1 games completed
All Possibilities 128 possible outcomes of last 7 games after 2 early 1/1 games completed
All Possibilities 512 possible outcomes of last 9 games after 12/31 games completed
All Possibilities 1,024 possible outcomes of last 10 games after 12/30 games completed
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games after Iowa-Texas 12/30 game completed
All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games after Navy-BC 12/30 game completed
All Possibilities 8,192 possible outcomes of last 13 games after 12/29 games completed (900K)
All Possibilities 65,536 possible outcomes of last 16 games after Oregon State-Missouri 12/29 game completed (7.5M)
All Possibilities 262,144 possible outcomes of last 18 games after 12/28 games completed (32M)