Bowl Pool Expected
Values
And All Possible
Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
Southern Cal wins
National Championship 1/4:
Final Standings
(Dan Williamson, Tyler Drozd, Megan & Jack, Kelly Gordon, Dog)
Virginia Tech scores late
to cover vs Auburn in Sugar Bowl 1/3:
1 game to go
(Dan Williamson clinches 1st, then Dog and Tyler Drozd)
Utah wins Fiesta Bowl 1/1:
2 games to go
(Terry Walter, Dan Williamson, Tyler Drozd, and then Megan & Jack)
Michigan loses but covers
in Rose
Bowl:
3 games to go
(Dan Williamson takes over lead., Carl now can not win)
Florida State wins &
Hawkeyes win game on last play 1/1:
4 games to go
(Carl still leads, with Dan Williamson 2nd, then Keith Wilson)
Wisconsin & Tennessee win early
games 1/1:
6 games to go
(Carl still leads, but Dog and Dan Williamson about tied for strong 2nd)
Miami(Flo) whips Florida New Year's Eve:
8
games to go (Carl in lead, Bob Wehrle moves into 2nd, Dan Williamson 3rd)
Boise State almost beats Louisville 12/31:
9 games to go
(Carl in lead, but Dog moves into 2nd)
Arizona State rallies to beat Purdue 12/31:
10 games to go
(Carl in lead, Mark Heithoff leads group in 2nd)
Minnesota defeats Alabama 12/31:
11 games to go
(Carl maintains big lead, Keith Wilson in 2nd)
Northern Illinois beats Troy State 12/30:
12 games to go (Carl,
Dennis, Keith Wilson moves into 3rd)
Texas Tech overwhelms California 12/30:
13 games to go
(Carl
keeps getting stronger, Dennis solid 2nd)
Navy beats New Mexico 12/30:
14 games to go (Carl
keeps getting stronger, Dennis Fulton climbs into 2nd)
Boston College wins 5th straight bowl
game 12/30:
15 games to go (Carl
Anderson actually increases his expectation, Sean, Gary Lawrance next)
Ohio State smashes Ok State 12/29:
16 games to go (Carl
Anderson way in front, Megan & Jack 2nd, Eric Krofta first eliminated)
Colorado wins 12/29:
17 games to go (Carl
Anderson builds bigger lead)
Oregon
State clobbers Notre Dame again 12/28:
18
games to go (Carl
maintains lead, Sean returns to 2nd, no one perfect any more)
Iowa State wins 2nd-ever bowl game 12/28:
19 games to go (Carl
still leads (of course), Perfect Meg & Jack next)
Connecticut wins in 1st ever bowl game 12/27:
20 games to go (Carl
still leads, Sean closes to 2nd, Megan & Jack only perfect left)
Fresno State upsets Virginia in OT
12/27:
21 games to go (Carl Anderson
stays perfect as do Jessica & Marnie, and Megan & Jack)
Hawaii wins 12/24:
22 games to go (Carl Anderson extends lead, 4
others remain perfect)
Cincinnati & Wyoming win 12/23:
23 games to go
(Carl Anderson takes lead, 4
others perfect so far)
Georgia Tech & Bowling
Green win 12/21 & 12/22:
25 games to go
(Brad Selken, Todd Hagenkord,
and Chip Cotton take opening
lead)
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
These won't show till 12 games or so to go.
All Possibilities 4
possible outcomes of last 2 games
All Possibilities 8
possible outcomes of last 3 games
All Possibilities 16
possible outcomes of last 4 games
All Possibilities 64
possible outcomes of last 6 games
All Possibilities 256
possible outcomes of last 8 games (Going into New Year's Day)
All Possibilities 1,024 possible outcomes of last 10 games
All Possibilities 2,048 possible outcomes of last 11 games
All Possibilities 4,096 possible outcomes of last 12 games after 12/30 games completed