Bowl Pool Expected
Values
And All Possible
Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
Final Sugar Bowl and overall results
possibilities:
If
L.S.U. Wins (Ed Holland
wins, Steve Harrington, Tom Hughes, and Doug Kroll)
If Oklahoma
Wins (Doug Kroll wins,
Steve Harrington, Ed Holland, and Pat Hagen)
Ohio State handles Kansas State in
Fiesta Bowl 1/2:
1 game
to go (Pat Hagen
& Steve Harrington follow 2 leaders)
(Note: Either Ed Holland (LSU) or Doug Kroll (Oklahoma) will win pool)
Clemson upsets Tennessee in Peach Bowl 1/2:
2
games to go (Ed Holland
slightly ahead of Kroll, then Harrington, & Pat Hagen)
Mississippi wins Cotton Bowl 1/2:
3 games
to go (Ed
Holland, then Steve Harrington, Doug Kroll, Sparky & Wheezer)
Miami holds off Florida State in Orange Bowl:
4 games to go (Ed
Holland, then Steve Harrington, Doug Kroll, & Gary Lawrance)
Southern Cal claims National Championship:
5 games to go (Ed
Holland builds lead, then Gary Lawrance & Steve Harrington)
Iowa, Maryland win easy, Georgia overcomes Purdue
comeback 1/1:
6 games to go
(Ed
Holland hits trifecta overtakes Kroll, then Gary Lawrance, Jen Mattes, and Steve Harrington)
Boston College wins New Years Eve:
9 games to go
(Kroll, then Ed Holland,
Steve Harrington)
Arkansas beats Missouri 12/31:
10 games to go
(Kroll
increases lead, then Ed Holland, Scott Holland)
Oregon covers and Utah shuts down Southern Miss
12/31:
11 games
to go (Doug
Kroll big lead, then Scott Holland, Ed Holland, & Hughes)
Auburn scores late to whip Wisconsin
12/31:
13
games to go (Doug Kroll
increases lead, Ed Holland moves into 2nd)
Washington State & Fresno State
winners 12/30:
14 games
to go (Doug Kroll moves
into 1st, Tom Hughes & Dan Williamson next)
Texas Tech sinks Navy 12/30:
16 games
to go (Steve
Harrington regains lead, Dan Williamson 2nd)
Nebraska beats Michigan State - 12/29:
17 games
to go (Tom
Hughes takes lead, Dan Williamson, then Ed Holland)
Virginia shuts down Fitzgerald 12/27:
18 games to go (Steve
Harrington takes over lead, Tom Hughes up to 3rd)
Cal comes from behind 12/26:
19 games to go (Dan
Williamson still leads, Steve Harrington close)
Northwestern covers spread 12/26:
20 games to go (Dan
Williamson now leads - 1st person eliminated from winning)
Houston takes Hawaii to OT 12/25:
21 games to go (Doug Kroll
leads - 2 others undefeated)
Oregon State routs New Mexico 12/24:
22 games to go
(Jeff Hart leads - 20 still
perfect)
T.C.U. keeps close to Boise State 12/23:
23 games to go
(Jan & Lisa take lead)
N.C. State leads off 12/22:
24 games to go
(Dean Eggers takes opening
lead)
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games
All Possibilities 8
possible outcomes of last 3 games
All Possibilities 16
possible outcomes of last 4 games
All Possibilities 32
possible outcomes of last 5 games
All Possibilities 64
possible outcomes of last 6 games
All Possibilities 512
possible outcomes of last 9 games (Going into New Year's Day)
All Possibilities 1024
possible outcomes of last 10 games
All Possibilities 2048
possible outcomes of last 11 games