Bowl Pool Expected
Values
And All Possible
Outcomes
Expected Value charts show your chances of winning or placing in the pool assuming each of the remaining games is equally likely to go either way. The expected value averages out your winning chances (multiplied by the amount to win) with the losing chances to yield the current expected value of your pool entry.
The Alone column indicates chances of winning it all. The Share column shows the number of possibilities of ending up in a tie for first place. And the Place column counts all chances of finishing in the top 8 (even a tie for 8th).
I need to point out a key fact: In recent years, the leaders on these early expected value charts have NOT ended up doing that well.
Final Scenarios:
If Ohio State
Wins (After Kroll - Chris
Wagner, Gary Young, Tom Hughes)
If
Miami(FL) wins (After
Kroll - Dave Desing, Larry Lesley, Fulton & Wagner)
Southern Cal wins 1/2:
1 game to go
(Chris Wagner,
Desing, Hughes, Fulton follow)
Texas, Michigan, NC State, Auburn, Oklahoma,
and Georgia win 1/1:
2 games to go
(Doug
Kroll clinches win! then Desing, Chris Kramer & Wagner)
3 games to go (Kroll most likely to
win, then Hughes, Behrman, Desing, and Fulton)
4 games to go
(Kroll and Hughes way up, then Wagner, Futlon, Desing)
6 games to go
(Hughes and Kroll stay tied,
Chris Wagner, Fulton, Behrman)
Boise State, Purdue, TCU, Fresno
State, Maryland, and Air Force win 12/31:
8 games to go
(Hughes and Kroll, then
Behrman)
9 games to go
(Hughes, Behrman, Kroll, then
Fulton)
10 games
to go
(Hughes, Fulton, Kroll, and
then the Behrman)
12
games to go (Fulton and Hughes about equal
chances)
13 games to go
(Hughes then
Fulton)
Minnesota and Wake Forest win 12/30:
14 games to go (Fulton,
Neuleib, Hughes, Mitchell)
15 games to go
(Mitchell, then Desing,
Fulton)
Virginia and Wisconsin win 12/28:
16 games to go (Desing
Stays in lead, but Denny Mitchell closes in)
17 games to go
(Dave Desing would move back
into lead)
Oklahoma State, Mississippi, and Arizona
State win 12/27:
18 games to go (Dennis
regains lead once again)
19 games to go
(Dave Desing takes over lead)
20 games to
go
(Dennis maintains solid lead -
Charles stays perfect)
Boston College and Pitt win 12/26:
21
games to go
(Fulton regains the lead - 2
others still undefeated)
22 games to go
(Don Eggers leads those
perfect through first 4)
Texas Tech, UCLA, and Tulane win first 3
games:
23 games to go
(Fulton racks up top 3 picks)
Players and Payouts:
Check out the abbreviations for expectations and all-possibilities files here.
The all-possibilities files show every possible outcome of the pool and lists the exact scores and order of placement for top 8 positions (and ties). After each game is finished, half the report may be deleted and the other half contains all the remaining outcome possibilities.
All Possibilities 4 possible outcomes of last 2 games
All Possibilities 8
possible outcomes of last 3 games
All Possibilities 16
possible outcomes of last 4 games
All Possibilities 64
possible outcomes of last 6 games
All Possibilities 256
possible outcomes of last 8 games going into New Year's Day
All Possibilities 1024
possible outcomes of last 10 games